Method for forecasting equipment guarantee expense in development stage

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for forecasting equipment guarantee expense in a development stage, comprising the following steps of: calculating the frequency of guarantee activities, calculating the guarantee expenses of various kinds of equipment, amending annual guarantee expense, determining high-guarantee expense items in the equipment service period, and taking improved measures to reduce guarantee expense; drawing the profile of annual guarantee expense in the service period after amending annual guarantee expense, and comparing the annual guarantee expenses; and the method belongs to the technical field of equipment comprehensive guarantee engineering. The method for forecasting equipment guarantee expense in the development stage has the advantages that a basis for the decision of equipment guarantee scheme can be provided, the alternative design schemes and guarantee schemes can be evaluated by analyzing prediction results, the high-guarantee expense items in the equipment service period can be found and the reason can be analyzed, the guarantee expense can be reduced by taking improved measures, and a support is provided to the final guarantee scheme.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention aims to predict the expenses related to equipment support during the service period of the equipment, and provides a method for predicting these support costs in the development stage. The invention belongs to the field of equipment comprehensive support engineering. The equipment involved in the invention is a general term for weapons, weapon systems and military technical equipment used to implement and guarantee combat operations, mainly referring to weapons, mine bombs, vehicles, machinery, Equipment, gear, etc. Background technique [0002] The economical design of equipment mainly depends on the development and production process, and it is difficult to have a significant impact on changes in life cycle costs after the equipment is delivered to the troops. In the early stage of the program phase, roughly 70% of the life cycle cost has been determined. By the end of the program phase, 85% of the life cycle cost has been determined. ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problem that the prediction process of equipment support costs is greatly affected by the subjective factors of the estimators, and the support costs can only be predicted at the later stage of the equipment development process, and cannot cover the entire development process, and cannot provide accurate guarantees for newly developed equipment. In order to solve problems such as cost forecasting and large errors in forecast results, a method for forecasting equipment support costs in the development stage is proposed, which can provide a basis for decision-making of equipment support schemes; through the analysis of forecast results, the alternative design schemes and support schemes Carry out evaluation, find out the items with high support cost during the service period of equipment and analyze the reasons, so as to take improvement measures to reduce the support cost, and provide support for the final determination of the support plan

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