Typhoon influence considered method for calculating combined return period of ocean extreme value

Abstract

The invention discloses a typhoon influence considered method for calculating a combined return period of an ocean extreme value, comprising the specific steps of: (1), determining four constraint conditions of a two-dimensional maximum entropy distribution function; (2), deducing a two-dimensional maximum entropy combined distribution mode; (3), determining an integer explicit expression of a mixed distribution moment of an extreme value wave height and an extreme value water level; (4), deducing an undetermined parameter equation set relevant to the mixed distribution moment; (5) constructing a nested composite maximum entropy distribution new mode for calculating the combined return period of the extreme value wave height and the extreme value water level in a typhoon influenced sea area; and (6), verifying the effectiveness of the new method. In the invention, the extreme value wave height and the extreme value water level are comprehensively considered, the influence on the extreme value wave height and the extreme value water level from the typhoon is considered and the whole mode is based on the maximum entropy principle so that the apriority and the artificial assumption of the mode are avoided. The integer explicit expression of the new mode is convenient for the engineering application; and through two groups of ten undetermined parameters, the new mode can be used for fitting the observation data of different sea areas more precisely and flexibly, thereby having wider range of application.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a joint return period calculation method of extreme wave height and extreme water level considering the influence of typhoon. Value water level joint return period calculation method. Background technique [0002] As the earth warms, marine disasters caused by typhoons / hurricanes become more severe and frequent. Typhoons can cause abnormally large waves. If the typhoon passes during the astronomical high tide, the astronomical tide level plus the storm surge water increase, combined with the typhoon wave, will form extreme marine disaster conditions, which can cause devastating disasters. This is exactly one of the important mechanisms for Hurricane Katrina in 2005 to cause a huge disaster in New Orleans, USA. Although it is generally said that typhoon surge and typhoon wave are twins of typhoon, as far as the near-shore waters are concerned, the size of the two varies according to the typhoon path and the geographica...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The maximum entropy distribution model of wave height based on the principle of maximum entropy has been applied in marine engineering. It can avoid to a certain extent the error in calculating the joint return period of extreme wave height and extreme water level caused by the artificial a priori selection of probability mode, but the model In the process of application, it is always a single-factor (i.e., single-variable) model, which is difficult to describe the complex marine environment, and cannot give the probability information related to the extreme wave height and extreme water level, and it is also ignored when deriving the multi-year design wave height. The factors of typhoon are taken into account, but the incentives for the occurrence of risks are not taken into account

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