Medium-long term forecasting method for wind power

Abstract

The invention relates to a medium-long term forecasting method for wind power, which is characterized by comprising the following steps of: (1) collecting global large-scale meteorology forecasting field data, and providing an initial field and side boundary condition of 7 days for a WRF (Weather Research Forecast) mode; collecting topography, vegetation and sea temperature data for providing underlying surface information for the WRF mode; (2) building the WRF mode to calculate meteorology field information; (3) inputting the large-scale meteorology forecasting field data collected in the step (1) and the underlying surface information into the WRF model to obtain the wind direction and the wind speed forecasting data within the wind field range; and (4) solving the output power of each fan according to the forecasted wind speed by a fan power curve, and accumulating to obtain the total output power of the wind field. The medium-long term forecasting method can accurately forecast the wind power in future 7 days in the WRF mode, has long forecasting time, operation stability, flexible forecasting scheme and few limitation conditions, and does not need the historical operation data of the wind field.

Description

【Technical field】 [0001] The invention relates to the field of wind power generation systems, in particular to a method for mid- and long-term forecasting of wind power, specifically a method for forecasting wind power of a wind farm for a period of 7 days by using a high-resolution numerical model combined with a fan power curve. 【Background technique】 [0002] Energy issues have a particularly important strategic position in China's sustainable economic and social development. China's current energy supply and demand conflict is sharp, energy utilization efficiency is low, and primary energy consumption dominated by coal has caused serious environmental pollution. China has become the world's second largest carbon dioxide emitter after the United States, and the pressure from the international community to reduce greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase. The "power shortage, coal shortage, oil shortage, and natural gas shortage" that have occurred on a large scale i...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The timeliness of the forecast is relatively short, and it is mainly aimed at the solution of wind power grid connection under the known peak shaving capacity. The proportion is getting higher and higher. If all standby units are in hot standby mode, the average load rate and average output of other thermal power units will decrease, which will reduce the efficiency of thermal power plants and increase coal consumption, which will greatly reduce the economical efficiency of power system operation. , rising coal consumption will also increase greenhouse gas emissions

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