Energy carbon emission optimization prediction method and device based on multiple constraints

Abstract

The invention provides an energy carbon emission optimization prediction method and device based on multiple constraints, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining historical data in a targeted manner according to an energy carbon emission prediction demand, carrying out the corresponding processing, and optimizing an energy carbon emission prediction model; obtaining various government planning and power planning files, and determining an energy carbon emission planning constraint condition and the input and prediction quantity and the output and process calculation quantity of the energy carbon emission prediction model; and performing optimization prediction on the input and prediction quantity and the output and process calculation quantity according to an energy carbon emission planning constraint condition so as to realize optimization prediction of energy carbon emission. According to the method, energy power is taken as a main perspective, economy, energy, power and carbon emission are comprehensively planned to meet multiple target constraints set by planning, and multiple targets set by a planning file are taken as constraint conditions through input and pre-measurement, output and process measurement; analysis and prediction are carried out for industry-based economic development, variety-based power generation structures, terminal and primary energy consumption, energy-related carbon emission and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of power systems, and in particular, to a method and device for optimizing and predicting energy carbon emissions based on multiple constraints. Background technique [0002] Achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is an extensive and profound economic and social transformation. It is necessary to adhere to a systematic concept, clarify timetables, roadmaps, and construction drawings, and promote economic and social development based on the efficient use of resources and green and low-carbon development. on the basis. Among them, "carbon peak" is the basic premise, and "carbon neutrality" is the ultimate goal. For carbon peaking, it is intertwined with factors such as economic growth, industrial development, energy and power supply, and ecological civilization construction. It is a complex systematic project. Under normal circumstances, the government will formulate national economic and s...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, the models for forecasting energy and carbon emissions mainly include the long-term energy alternative planning econometric model (LEAP model for short) and the scalable stochastic environmental impact assessment model (STIRPAT model for short). From the principles of the LEAP model and the STIRPAT model, the two models There is no detailed description of the power field

The input is not flexible enough, the calculation process is not transparent enough, and the output result is single. It cannot meet the multiple constraints of economic, energy, power, and carbon planning goals at the same time, which limits the adaptability and accuracy of the model.

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