Ship probability conflict detection method based on minimum safe distance model

Abstract

The invention discloses a ship probability conflict detection method based on a minimum safe distance model. The method comprises the following steps: S1, obtaining ship information of a ship and surrounding target ships; s2, calculating the relative direction and the relative distance of the target ship relative to the ship; s3, screening the minimum safe distance between the ship and the surrounding target ship in the specified azimuth interval within the preset time period; s4, performing data point denoising on the screened minimum safety distance; s5, constructing a mathematical model of the MSD, the ship length, the navigational speed and the relative orientation; s6, generating random sampling points according to the probability density function of the ship speed based on the Monte Carlo thought, inserting each random sampling point into the ship uncertainty motion equation model, and solving the conflict probability by using a deterministic solver. According to the method, a ship driver can be helped to discover ships with high conflicts in time in the sailing process, the sailing risk can be known more accurately and rapidly, so that a control decision for avoiding the risk is made, and the sailing safety is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of water traffic safety, and in particular relates to a ship probability collision detection method based on a minimum safety distance model. Background technique [0002] Ship navigation safety is the primary issue of global maritime development and research, and it is the most fundamental prerequisite for improving shipping efficiency, port operation management, preventing loss of life and property, and environmental pollution. In order to meet the growing demand for water transport, the number of ships is increasing, the tonnage is increasing, and the speed is increasing, and the traffic density of ships in the waters is increasing. Relevant studies have shown that ship collision is one of the most common types of accidents. Ship navigation risk is the core content of navigation safety. Ship collision risk has always been an important research topic. This is reflected in the fact that researchers pay m...

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Problems solved by technology

[0010] The disadvantages of the first two types of methods are that the spatial and temporal proximity between ships are usually considered separately or combined into specific numerical values ​​or analytical expressions as indicators for determining collision candidates, and it is difficult to determine and express these analytical expressions. Physical meaning; most of the latter two types of research choose static critical conflict diameter, but in the actual navigation process due to the influence of ship steering, speed change, wind current and other factors, the size of the critical conflict diameter is constantly changing; the traffic conflict detection model has no Considering the dynamics and uncertainties of the speed and course during the meeting of the ships, it is assumed that the ships sail in a straight line at a constant speed during the meeting, and there is a certain deviation between the calculated results and the actual situation

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