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Method for predicting cross-regional transmission of new infectious diseases in open system

A spread prediction and infectious disease technology, applied in the field of public health and medical care, can solve the problem that the trend of periodic local outbreaks of viruses has not changed, and achieve the effect of easy practical application, strong operability and feasibility

Pending Publication Date: 2021-08-10
DALIAN UNIV OF TECH +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0002] Although medicine has made great progress, the trend of periodic local outbreaks of the virus has not changed

Method used

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  • Method for predicting cross-regional transmission of new infectious diseases in open system
  • Method for predicting cross-regional transmission of new infectious diseases in open system
  • Method for predicting cross-regional transmission of new infectious diseases in open system

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Experimental program
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Embodiment Construction

[0027] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with specific examples.

[0028] Considering the COVID-19 epidemic, all the population is divided into susceptible (S warehouse), latent infected (E warehouse), symptomatic infected (I warehouse), hospitalized infected (R warehouse), Recovered persons (room R); record N as the total population, and N=S+E+H+I+R.

[0029] A cross-regional infectious disease prediction method, its calculation flow chart is as follows figure 1 shown. Proceed as follows:

[0030] Step 1: Establish an open SEIHR model of the latent time lag in the epidemic center

[0031] The spread of the virus at the epicenter of the epidemic takes place in an open system, where the total population changes with the inflow and outflow of people across regions. It is also assumed that susceptible persons, latent persons, and infected persons who have not been admitted to the hospital for isolation have an equal probability distribution...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting cross-regional transmission of new infectious diseases in an open system, and belongs to the field of public health and medical treatment. The method includes: firstly, based on transmission dynamics of virus diffusion in an open system, a bin model of an epidemic situation center is established and used for describing cross-regional output of infected persons of the epidemic situation center; secondly, according to a cross-regional propagation network + chamber model, which is output by an epidemic situation center to other regions, of infected persons, establishing a regional differentiated infectious disease dynamics prediction model; and finally, the model parameters are estimated according to actual data, and the population quantity dynamic state in each bin in a plurality of areas can be simulated. According to the method, the closure and homogeneity of the epidemic propagation prediction model are improved, and the method has important scientific significance.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of public health and medical care, and relates to a method for predicting cross-regional transmission of emerging infectious diseases under an open system. Background technique [0002] Although medicine has made great progress, the trend of periodic local outbreaks of the virus has not changed. Emerging infectious diseases are sudden, interlocking, and uncertain. A well-developed and convenient transportation network and logistics network have accelerated the cross-regional spread of infectious diseases. A local outbreak of a virus can quickly spread to multiple regions through transportation connections. Only by relying on accurate prediction can early effective identification and rapid decision-making of major epidemic crises be achieved, which is the most important scientific basis in the emergency management system. Among them, accurately describing the virus transmission mechanism and describing the virus trans...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80G16H50/50
CPCG16H50/80G16H50/50Y02A90/10
Inventor 王昕炜郑钦月包春兵孟庆春张盛彭海军李云鹏陈飙松姜曼頔
Owner DALIAN UNIV OF TECH
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