Prediction model for survival benefit of metastatic kidney cancer patients after systematic treatment and an establishment method and application thereof

A technique for predicting models and establishing methods, which is applied in medical simulation, computer-aided medical procedures, medical informatics, etc., and can solve problems such as limitations of predictive capabilities

Pending Publication Date: 2021-05-14
WEST CHINA HOSPITAL SICHUAN UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The existing International Metastatic RenalCell Carcinoma Database Consortium (IMDC) score is widely used to predict the prognosis of patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma, but its predictive ability has certain limitations

Method used

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  • Prediction model for survival benefit of metastatic kidney cancer patients after systematic treatment and an establishment method and application thereof
  • Prediction model for survival benefit of metastatic kidney cancer patients after systematic treatment and an establishment method and application thereof
  • Prediction model for survival benefit of metastatic kidney cancer patients after systematic treatment and an establishment method and application thereof

Examples

Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0048] Example 1 Establishment of a nomogram model for the survival benefit of patients with metastatic renal cancer receiving targeted / immunotherapy, and visual presentation of the model through the nomogram

[0049] The method for establishing a nomogram model of survival benefit for metastatic kidney cancer patients receiving targeted / immunotherapy comprises the following steps:

[0050](1) Collected 218 patients who were diagnosed with metastatic renal cell carcinoma in West China Hospital of Sichuan University from 2009 to 2019;

[0051] After the diagnosis of metastatic RCC, all patients were treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) targeted drugs or immune checkpoint inhibitors. At the end of follow-up, a total of 109 patients had died;

[0052] (2) Collect the clinical and pathological data of all patients as follows: gender, age, type of surgery, pathological type, TNM stage, baseline blood routine, biochemical results, location and size of metastatic lesions, I...

Embodiment 2

[0061] Embodiment 2 verifies the prediction model established

[0062] After the prognostic model of BFS was established, 65 patients in the validation group were used to validate the model. The verification of the model was completed through C-index index and consistency curve analysis. The specific steps are as follows:

[0063] (1) The C-index index can reflect the prediction accuracy of the model in predicting OS or the ability to distinguish prognosis. C-index was calculated by R software.

[0064] The C-index of the traditional IMDC score for predicting OS is 0.599, while the C-index of the prediction model of the present invention is 0.667, indicating that the prediction model of the present invention has better prediction accuracy and discrimination than the traditional IMDC model.

[0065] (2) The consistency curve is used to reflect the consistency between the predicted probability of survival at the 36th month and the 60th month and the actual survival ratio of t...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of prognosis evaluation of metastatic kidney cancer patients, and particularly relates to a prediction model for survival benefit of metastatic kidney cancer patients after systematic treatment and an establishment method and application thereof. The prediction model for survival benefit of the metastatic kidney cancer patients after systematic treatment is a line chart model made by collecting time from primary diagnosis to systematic treatment of the metastatic kidney cancer patient, Karnofsky physical strength score, anemia, neutrophil polycythemia, thrombocythemia, hypercalcemia and bone / brain / liver metastasis, thereby predicting the time when the patient begins to receive system treatment to death. For a metastatic kidney cancer patient receiving systematic treatment, the actual condition of the influence variable in the column diagram can be scored, and the survival rate condition of the patient in the twelfth month and the twenty-fourth month can be obtained according to the corresponding position of the total column diagram, so that clinical doctors can use the survival rate in daily work more conveniently.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of prognosis evaluation for patients with metastatic renal cancer, and in particular relates to a prediction model for the survival benefit of patients with metastatic renal cancer after receiving systemic treatment, and its establishment method and application. Background technique [0002] Kidney cancer, also known as renal cell carcinoma, accounts for 2% to 3% of malignant tumors in the whole body, and ranks second in malignant tumors of the urinary and male reproductive system, second only to bladder cancer. Among the new cases, about 20% to 30% of the patients have metastases at the time of diagnosis, and 25% of the patients have metastases several years after radical nephrectomy or nephron-preserving surgery. [0003] For patients with metastatic RCC, systemic therapy (including targeted / immunotherapy) is the standard treatment. Most patients will develop resistance to targeted / immunotherapy drugs after receivi...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G16H50/50
CPCG16H50/50
Inventor 沈朋飞曾浩张浩然张兴明朱旭东戴津东
Owner WEST CHINA HOSPITAL SICHUAN UNIV
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