Reservoir flood regulation multi-dimensional uncertainty risk analysis method based on Bayesian network

Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir flood regulation multi-dimensional uncertainty risk analysis method based on a Bayesian network. The reservoir flood regulation multi-dimensional uncertainty risk analysis method comprises the following steps: identifying risk factors of regulation starting water level uncertainty and flood forecasting uncertainty; carrying out bayesian network structure learning based on an expert experience method; carrying out bayesian network parameter learning to acquire a conditional probability table (CPT) of each node; performing Bayesian network probability reasoning; carrying out risk calculation and analysis. In order to couple the influence of regulation starting uncertainty and reservoir flood forecasting errors on reservoir flood control scheduling risks, areservoir flood control risk analysis model based on the Bayesian network is established, and coordinated conversion of reservoir interest benefits and flood control risks in the flood season can beachieved; the bidirectional reasoning of the Bayesian network can establish a reservoir scheduling risk bidirectional analysis and evaluation mode, and has a good application prospect.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a risk analysis method for reservoir flood control scheduling, in particular to a Bayesian network-based multidimensional uncertainty risk analysis method for reservoir flood regulation. Background technique [0002] Affected by the monsoon climate, my country's flood season has concentrated precipitation and frequent flood disasters. As the main engineering measure to regulate runoff, the reservoir undertakes the main task of flood control during the flood season. However, the scheduling method of reservoirs that focuses too much on flood control may easily lead to insufficient coordinated regulation of flood control and water resource utilization during the flood season. In order to coordinate the contradiction between flood control and prosperity of reservoirs, and give full play to the comprehensive benefits of reservoirs, the research on the utilization of reservoir flood resources has emerged as the times require. Among ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Due to the existence of forecast errors, there is a certain risk in the utilization of flood resources. The main manifestation is that due to the failure of forecasting, the starting water level exceeds the design flood limit water level when the flood comes, thus causing flood control risks in the reservoir and downstream.

In the process of reservoir flood regulation, in addition to the risk source of the uncertainty of the adjustment water level, there are many other uncertainties, such as the uncertainty of the hydrological forecast of the flood entering the reservoir, the uncertainty of the hydraulic conditions of the discharge capacity of the reservoir, Uncertainty of water level storage capacity relationship, etc.

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