Storm surge extreme water level prediction method based on coupling of random statistical model and hydrodynamic model

Abstract

The invention discloses a storm surge extreme water level prediction method based on coupling of a random statistical model and a hydrodynamic model, and belongs to the technical field of ocean science and ocean engineering. The method comprises the following steps: S1, collecting hydrotopographic data in a region, establishing a Delft3D hydrodynamic model, and verifying the Delft3D hydrodynamic model; S2, establishing a main historical typhoon database, and listing a storm surge driving element set; S3, recombining storm surge driving elements on the basis of Monte Carlo; S4, selecting an appropriate typhoon field model and verifying the typhoon field model; and S5, simulating and predicting the extremely high water level based on storm surge of typical historical typhoons. The inventioncomprehensively considers the influence of climate change and sea level rise on the extreme water level value, can be used for predicting the extreme water levels in different recurrence periods and forecasting the numerical value of storm surge, is beneficial to disaster prevention and reduction so as to reduce disaster loss in coastal fragile regions, and is beneficial to reasonable planning anddesign.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of marine science and marine engineering, and mainly relates to a storm surge extreme water level prediction method based on the coupling of a random statistical model and a hydrodynamic model. Background technique [0002] Storm surge disasters rank first in marine disasters, and most of the major coastal disasters caused by strong storms in the world are caused by storm surges. Cyclone wind speeds under the action of storm surges are mostly above 17 m / s, even above 60 m / s. Cyclone winds and the waves caused by them will destroy giant ships, and hurricane-level winds can damage or even destroy buildings, bridges, and vehicles on land Wait. Flood disasters caused by cyclonic rainstorms are ferocious and destructive, and they are also the most dangerous disasters. When the cyclone moves to the land, due to the strong wind and low pressure of the cyclone, the seawater will accumulate strongly towards the coa...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

If the storm surge meets the high tide level of the astronomical high tide, a higher water level can be generated, resulting in flooding of the tide, bursting of the sea wall, destroying houses and various building facilities, submerging towns and farmland, causing a large number of casualties and property losses

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