Reservoir flood control risk estimation method suitable for future climate change scene

Abstract

The invention relates to a reservoir flood control risk estimation method suitable for climate change. The method comprises the steps of utilizing historical and future data provided by an ASD downscaling model and a global climate model (GCM) to calculate annual precipitation under each GCM historical and future scene; analyzing uncertainty of future rainfall by adopting a Bayesian model weightedaverage (BMA) method and a Monte Carlo sampling method; based on a GAMLSS model, analyzing a covariant relationship between annual precipitation of the reference period and P-III distribution parameters; substituting the precipitation of the future year into the covariant relationship, and analyzing the uncertainty of the design flood caused by the uncertainty of the precipitation of the year; and finally, obtaining a design flood hydrograph group by adopting a same-frequency or same-multiple-ratio amplification method, obtaining the highest flood regulation water level through reservoir flood regulation calculation, calculating the probability that the water level exceeds the design flood level, and obtaining corresponding flood control risk rates in different periods of a future scene.

Description

Technical field[0001]The invention relates to the field of reservoir flood control risk assessment, in particular to a reservoir flood control risk estimation method suitable for future climate change scenarios.Background technique[0002]The design flood level of a reservoir refers to the highest water level that the reservoir reaches before the dam after the flood is adjusted when it encounters the dam design standard flood. It is the highest water level that the reservoir is allowed to reach under normal operating conditions. Once this water level is exceeded, the safety of the dam will be threatened. Therefore, the risk of the reservoir exceeding the design flood level is an important indicator to measure the safety of the reservoir.[0003]The design flood is an important basis for determining the design flood level, and the design flood is calculated from the hydrological frequency under the premise that the hydrological sequence meets the consistency assumption. Under future clim...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Aiming at the deficiencies of the existing methods, the present invention provides a flood control risk estimation method applicable to future climate change scenarios to solve future problems under climate change scenarios. Problems of Reservoir Flood Control Risk Assessment Caused by Precipitation Uncertainty

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