A method for forecasting strong winds in special terrain

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of meteorological forecasting, specifically a method for forecasting strong winds in special terrain; Step 1: Select the location interval that needs to be forecasted for strong winds; Step 2: Establish a numerical forecast site; Extract the corresponding values ​​under the variables of different heights and times The wind speed forecast value in the forecast station; Step 3: Through polynomial linear regression equation calculation, carry out secondary forecast to the corresponding wind speed; Step 4: Establish interval forecast station; Measure the start and end wind time and wind speed at the upstream interval forecast station; Step Five: Establish the wind speed equation of the upstream and downstream stations, and estimate the wind speed of the downstream interval forecast station to be measured; Step six: The estimated wind speed at the location obtained by the quadratic modeling method and the wind speed at the location obtained by the upstream and downstream index station method The predicted values ​​are combined to obtain an accurate strong wind forecast value for the location. The invention integrates the secondary modeling correction and the upstream and downstream index station method, effectively reducing the forecast error greatly.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of meteorological forecasting, in particular to a special terrain strong wind forecasting method. Background technique [0002] In mountainous areas with higher altitudes, because the mountains block the way of cold air, it is generally difficult for cold air to cross the mountains and form strong winds. However, in the lower altitudes of the mountainous areas, there will be some small gaps (relatively low altitude), from which the cold air can climb over the mountains and blow thousands of miles to form strong winds. For example, the famous hundred-mile wind area and the first hundred-kilometer wind area in Xinjiang are the two gaps in Sepikou and Dabancheng corresponding to the Tianshan Mountains, which are formed under the special terrain conditions under the combined action of mountain turning and narrow pipe effect. In the wind area, the number of strong wind days is more than 150 days per year, up to more than ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0009] For strong winds formed under special complex terrain conditions, the forecasting capabilities of the above three traditional wind speed forecasting methods are generally weak. It cannot meet the actual business, such as the dispatching and commanding needs of traffic operations

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