Special terrain strong wind forecasting method

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of weather forecasting, and particularly relates to a special terrain strong wind forecasting method. The method comprises the steps of 1, selecting a place intervalneeding strong wind forecasting; 2, establishing a numerical forecasting station, extracting wind speed forecasting values in the corresponding numerical forecasting stations under the variables of different heights and time; 3, performing secondary forecasting on the corresponding wind speed through polynomial linear regression equation calculation; 4, establishing interval forecasting stations,and measuring the wind starting and stopping time and the wind speed at the upstream interval forecast station; 5, establishing a wind speed equation of upstream and downstream stations, and estimating the wind speed of the downstream interval forecast station to be measured; and 6, combining the wind speed estimated value of the place obtained by the quadratic modeling method with the wind speedestimated value of the place obtained by adopting the upstream and downstream index station method to obtain the accurate strong wind forecast value of the place. According to the method, secondary modeling correction is integrated with upstream and downstream index station methods, so that the forecasting error is effectively and greatly reduced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of meteorological forecasting, in particular to a special terrain strong wind forecasting method. Background technique [0002] In mountainous areas with higher altitudes, because the mountains block the way of cold air, it is generally difficult for cold air to cross the mountains and form strong winds. However, in the lower altitudes of the mountainous areas, there will be some small gaps (relatively low altitude), from which the cold air can climb over the mountains and blow thousands of miles to form strong winds. For example, the famous hundred-mile wind area and the first hundred-kilometer wind area in Xinjiang are the two gaps in Sepikou and Dabancheng corresponding to the Tianshan Mountains, which are formed under the special terrain conditions under the combined action of mountain turning and narrow pipe effect. In the wind area, the number of strong wind days is more than 150 days per year, up to more than ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0009] For strong winds formed under special complex terrain conditions, the forecasting capabilities of the above three traditional wind speed forecasting methods are generally weak. It cannot meet the actual business, such as the dispatching and commanding needs of traffic operations

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