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Power grid galloping long-term prediction method and system based on climatic dynamic downscaling

A prediction method and downscaling technology, applied in the field of long-term grid galloping prediction method and system based on climate dynamics downscaling, can solve problems such as inability to predict grid galloping in the long term, achieve safe and stable operation, simple calculation process, and good versatility Effect

Pending Publication Date: 2020-04-03
STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER +2
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The present invention provides a long-term prediction method and system for power grid galloping based on climate dynamics downscaling to solve the technical problem that the long-term power grid galloping cannot be predicted at present

Method used

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  • Power grid galloping long-term prediction method and system based on climatic dynamic downscaling

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Embodiment 1

[0035] The long-term prediction method for power grid galloping based on climate dynamic downscaling in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0036] S1. Select the global climate model, predict the monthly average meteorological field in the next N months, and output the meteorological data. The meteorological data output by this model meet the following conditions: it can provide the lateral boundary field and underlying surface field for the regional climate model in the next step, such as: the meteorological elements of the lateral boundary field and underlying surface field include sea surface temperature, soil temperature, Layer-by-layer geopotential height field, temperature field, wind field and specific humidity field at 1000hPa and above.

[0037] Since global climate models generally have low resolution, downscaling predictions from more refined regional climate models are required.

[0038] S2. Select a regional climate model (meteorological model), divid...

Embodiment 2

[0047] The present invention also provides a computer system, including a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and operable on the processor. When the processor executes the computer program, the steps of any of the above-mentioned methods are realized.

[0048] In actual forecasting, since the global climate model cannot make refined predictions, and the meteorological model (regional climate model) suitable for carrying out refined predictions cannot be integrated for a long time due to the accumulation of errors, the present invention combines the advantages of the two to perform long-term predictions, and has the following advantages:

[0049] On the one hand, the lateral boundary field and underlying surface are provided by the global climate model, which ensures that the forcing items of the meteorological model are updated regularly;

[0050] On the other hand, meteorological models can simulate the area to be predicted at a higher spatial and...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid galloping long-term prediction method and system based on climate dynamic downscaling. The power grid galloping long-term prediction method comprises the steps: selecting a global climate mode, carrying out the prediction of a monthly average meteorological field of N months in the future, and outputting meteorological data; selecting a regional climate mode, dividing a to-be-predicted region into grids, carrying out integration with a meteorological field of meteorological data at the prediction starting moment as an initial field, wherein the integrationduration is N months; outputting the integrated meteorological elements day by day in the regional climate mode, judging whether the meteorological elements output day by day of the grid meet a dancing day model or not, and judging the date meeting the dancing day model as the dancing day of the grid; and counting the to-be-predicted time within N months to obtain the total number of dancing dayson each grid, and drawing a contour map on the to-be-predicted area. The power grid galloping long-term prediction method is good in universality and can be suitable for calculation of long-term prediction of power grid galloping in different regions.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grid protection, in particular to a long-term prediction method and system for grid galloping based on downscaling of climate dynamics. Background technique [0002] With the advancement of China Energy's west-east power transmission strategy, more and more east-west transmission lines have been built and put into operation. In winter and spring, the cold air from the north moves south and meets the warm and humid air from the south, which is likely to cause ice covering of transmission lines. Under the action of north wind, the east-west conductors with uneven icing are especially prone to line galloping. Galloping is the low-frequency and large-scale vibration of the line, and the amplitude can reach up to more than ten meters. It may cause the line to trip, or cause the tower to fall and break the line, which seriously threatens the safe and stable operation of the large power grid. For example...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y02A90/10
Inventor 怀晓伟杨莉简洲李丽
Owner STATE GRID HUNAN ELECTRIC POWER
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