Load prediction model creation method and device, and power load prediction method and device

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a load prediction model creation method and device, and a power load prediction method and device. The load prediction model creation method comprises the steps of obtaining historical power load characteristic data and corresponding historical condition data; determining distribution characteristics of the historical power load characteristic data and thehistorical condition data; establishing at least one initial prediction model according to the distribution characteristics; wherein the initial prediction model comprises an association relationshipbetween the historical power load characteristic data and the historical condition data; determining whether each initial prediction model satisfies a preset error condition or not according to the historical power load characteristic data and the historical condition data; and determining a power load prediction model according to the initial prediction model meeting the error condition. According to the embodiment of the invention, the algorithm is simplified, the modeling efficiency is improved, and the overfitting phenomenon is avoided, so that the created power load prediction model is simple in structure and relatively good in fitting effect, and accurate prediction of the future power load is facilitated.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of electric load detection, and in particular, the present application relates to a method and device for creating a load forecasting model, and a method and device for electric load forecasting. Background technique [0002] Load forecasting is to determine the load data at a specific time in the future based on many factors such as system operating characteristics, capacity increase decision-making, natural conditions and social influences, under the condition of meeting certain accuracy requirements, where load refers to the power demand (power) or electricity usage. [0003] Power load forecasting is an important part of the economic dispatching of the power system and an important module of the energy management system (EMS). Accurate load forecasting can economically and reasonably arrange the start and stop of the generator sets inside the power grid to maintain the safety of the power grid ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In view of the shortcomings of the existing methods, this application proposes a method and device for creating a load forecasting model, a method and a device for power load forecasting, in order to solve the problems existing in the prior art that the algorithm is complex, overfitting is prone to occur, and the prediction result accuracy is not high technical problem

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