Ecological model simulation uncertainty analysis method

Abstract

The invention, which relates to the technical field of ecology, discloses an ecological model simulation uncertainty analysis method. According to the method, key parameters of an ecological model arescreened and optimized, uncertainty of the key parameters is quantified, and the obtained parameter uncertainty is propagated into a simulation result; the largest contribution to the model simulation result uncertainty by certain parameter uncertainty is traced; and a bridge between field observation and model simulation is established. Therefore, the guidance is provided for future direction offield observation and the direction is also provided for the improvement of model process, so that the uncertainty of model simulation results is reduced continuously and the model simulation accuracy is improved. Moreover, according to different specific needs, the method can be applied to model simulation uncertainty analysis with different spatial-temporal resolutions and different time spansby combining different-scale observation data; and the different spatial and temporal scales of model simulation uncertainty study of the ecological system is supported.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of ecology, in particular to an uncertainty analysis method for ecological model simulation. Background technique [0002] At present, the uncertainty analysis of the simulation results of ecological models is mostly qualitative, and some quantitative studies only quantify the uncertainty of the simulation results. Model simulation uncertainty provides the key to direction. [0003] Therefore, it is necessary to propose a method that can simultaneously quantify and split the uncertainty of ecological model simulation results to provide directions for future field observations and model improvements. Contents of the invention [0004] The purpose of the present invention is to provide an ecological model simulation uncertainty analysis method, thereby solving the aforementioned problems existing in the prior art. [0005] In order to achieve the above object, the technical scheme adopted in the present in...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0002] At present, the uncertainty analysis of the simulation results of ecological models is mostly qualitative, and some quantitative studies only quantify the uncertainty of the simulation results. Key to Model Simulation Uncertainty Provides Orientation

Images