A Copula Function-Based Modeling Method of Combined Wind and Wind Output

Abstract

The invention discloses a wind-solar combined output modeling method based on a Copula function. The method comprises the following steps: converting the output power of a wind farm and a photovoltaicfield into a wind power output sequence and a photovoltaic output sequence, estimating the core density, and obtaining the edge distribution function of the wind power output and the photovoltaic output; substituting the edge distribution functions of wind power output and photovoltaic output into a Copula function to obtain static correlation coefficients of the Copula function, and using the static correlation coefficients of the Copula function to establish the static model of wind-solar combined output; substituting the wind power output sequence and photovoltaic output sequence into an evolution equation, and utilizing a maximum likelihood estimation method to obtain dynamic correlation coefficients of the Copula function, and using the dynamic correlation coefficients of the Copulafunction to establish a dynamic model of wind-solar combined output. The optimal model is obtained from the static model and the dynamic model of the wind-solar combined output. The invention reducesthe estimation error and makes the model fitting goodness higher.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of new energy output uncertainty modeling, and more specifically, relates to a method for modeling combined wind and solar output based on a Copula function. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country's new energy installed capacity has increased year by year, the total installed capacity ranks first in the world, and the total consumption has achieved rapid growth. With the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy, the contradiction of consumption has gradually become prominent. How to reduce the curtailment of wind and light has become the focus of academic research. The modeling and verification of dynamic characteristics of intermittent energy sources such as wind farms and photovoltaic power stations is the basis for solving this problem. [0003] In order to establish a dynamic Copula model of wind power combined output, it is first necessary to establish the marginal distribu...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] Aiming at the above defects or improvement needs of the prior art, the present invention provides a modeling method of wind-solar joint output based on the Copula function, thereby solving the defects in the prior art when describing the wind-solar joint output, and the goodness of fit is not good enough. high technical issues

Images