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Method for estimating earthquake disaster casualty population and computer readable medium

A population and disaster technology, applied in computing, instruments, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as low accuracy

Pending Publication Date: 2018-12-07
BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY
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  • Summary
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  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The population density of the earthquake-occurring area in this method is calculated by obtaining the administrative geographic range and the total population of the area where the main shock occurred, because the occurrence of earthquakes and the distribution of earthquake intensity are not limited by the administrative geographic area. The method also has the problem of low precision

Method used

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  • Method for estimating earthquake disaster casualty population and computer readable medium
  • Method for estimating earthquake disaster casualty population and computer readable medium
  • Method for estimating earthquake disaster casualty population and computer readable medium

Examples

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Effect test

example 1

[0099] The number of casualties caused by earthquake disasters is not only related to earthquake intensity and population density, but also related to the seismic performance of buildings, and the seismic performance of buildings is closely related to the local economic level. Therefore, the construction of the casualty rate model should also consider the impact of the economy. Example 1 of the present invention divides 15 earthquake-prone Asian countries (regions) into 6 groups according to per capita GDP, which are respectively I-VI, and its population and economic conditions are shown in Table 2.

[0100] Table 2 Basic situation and classification of earthquake-prone countries (regions) in Asia

[0101]

[0102]

[0103] According to the above classification, the horizontal axis is the magnitude of the earthquake, and the vertical axis is the logarithm of the earthquake population casualty rate. The data of each earthquake in the 6 types of countries (regions) from 19...

example 2

[0122] Example 2 of the present invention uses the logarithmic relationship between earthquake magnitude and casualty rate in Asian countries (regions) in 1990-2012 as a sample point, adopts the maximum and minimum casualty rate estimation curve fitting method, and constructs the earthquake casualty population estimation model in Asia, The earthquake sample points and earthquake casualty rate estimation curve obtained by referring to Example 1 are as follows: Figure 7 As shown, Table 5 shows the equation of the estimation curve of earthquake magnitude and earthquake casualty rate according to this example.

[0123] Table 5 Casualty rate estimation curve equation

[0124]

[0125] In the formula, y is the base 10 logarithm of the casualty rate, x is the magnitude of the earthquake on the Richter scale, and R2 is the goodness of fit of the model.

[0126] The present invention collects Asian earthquake disaster records from 1990 to 2016 through EM-DAT, ARDC and GLIDE database...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for constructing an earthquake disaster casualty population estimation model. The method includes a step of acquiring a plurality of historical seismic data includingmagnitudes of earthquakes, epicenters of the earthquakes, earthquake years, and earthquake casualty population, a step of determining the affection area of an earthquake of this time according to theearthquake magnitude and the epicenter of the earthquake, a step of determining a total population of the earthquake affection area according to population distribution data of the earthquake affection area, a step of obtaining a population casualty rate of the earthquake according to the earthquake casualty population and the total population of the earthquake affection area, and a step of establishing the earthquake disaster casualty population estimation mode characterized by an earthquake magnitude according to the magnitudes of historical earthquakes and corresponding earthquake population casualty rates. By using the model, the scope and casualty population of an earthquake disaster affection area can be quickly calculated at the first time of obtaining the earthquake magnitude, anda basis is provided for corresponding rescue measures through the rapid evaluation of a casualty after an earthquake disaster.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of seismic data processing. More specifically, it relates to a method for estimating earthquake casualty population and a computer-readable medium that can be executed to implement the method. Background technique [0002] Earthquake disasters are the natural disasters that cause the largest number of deaths. The population casualty rate of an earthquake refers to the conditions caused by an earthquake that can affect the probability and degree of damage to a population. With the continuous growth of the global population and large-scale urbanization, the threat of earthquakes to human life will increase. Human technology is not yet capable of accurately predicting earthquakes, but it is possible to quickly estimate the casualties after an earthquake, reasonably deploy rescue forces and carry out effective rescue according to the prediction results. [0003] A known evaluation method believes that althoug...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/0639G06Q50/26
Inventor 王瑛史培军张越林齐根刘燕仪
Owner BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY
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