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Short-period wind power interval predicating method

A technology of wind power and forecasting methods, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as the difficulty in describing the randomness and uncertainty of wind power, and the results have no probabilistic meaning

Active Publication Date: 2018-10-30
NANJING UNIV OF INFORMATION SCI & TECH
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Problems solved by technology

However, these methods are all deterministic point prediction methods, and the results have no probabilistic meaning, and it is difficult to describe the randomness and uncertainty of wind power.

Method used

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  • Short-period wind power interval predicating method
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  • Short-period wind power interval predicating method

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Embodiment Construction

[0044] Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the technical scheme of invention is described in detail:

[0045] Such as Figure 8 , the short-term wind power interval prediction method of this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0046] Step 1) Normalize the wind power data and transform all power data into the [-1,1] interval.

[0047] Step 2) Using the VMD algorithm to decompose the normalized wind power sequence to form subsequences.

[0048] Step 3) Evaluate the complexity of the subsequence using sample entropy, according to the formula Calculate the sample entropy of the subsequence, superimpose the subsequences with close sample entropy into a new subsequence, and complete the reconstruction of the subsequence; SampEn (N,m,v) represents the sample entropy, set the time series as {x i}={x(1),x(2),...,x(N)}, i=1,2,...,N-m+1, set X(i) as the sequence {x i} form m-dimensional vector in order, Indicates the probability that X(i) matches the template, ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a short-period wind power interval predicating method which comprises the steps of decomposing a wind power sequence by means of VMD, calculating the sample entropy of each subsequence after decomposing, performing regrouping of the subsequences with approximate sample entropy for forming a new subsequence, respectively establishing a GPR model for each re-grouped subsequence, predicating the probability interval of the wind power sequence, and finally overlapping the prediction results of the subsequences for obtaining a final short-period wind power interval predicating result. The method according to the invention is a scientific and effective method for predicating the short-period wind power interval, and further has advantages of good interval coverage range,high predication accuracy and relatively narrow interval width. The short-period wind power interval predicating method facilitates scheduling and operation of a power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of wind power prediction, in particular to a short-term wind power interval prediction method. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the speed of global warming has accelerated, and the problem of environmental pollution has become increasingly serious. In order to reduce environmental pollution and alleviate the energy depletion crisis caused by excessive consumption of fossil fuels, many countries have set their sights on the development of renewable energy and clean energy. As a highly efficient, clean and inexhaustible renewable resource, wind energy has been increasingly valued by countries all over the world, and has been widely developed and utilized. [0003] The volatility and randomness of wind make wind energy have strong uncertainty and chaotic characteristics. With the increasing proportion of wind power connected to the grid, wind power has put forward new requirements for the reliability of th...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 邓华张颖超李慧玲顾荣黄飞支兴亮
Owner NANJING UNIV OF INFORMATION SCI & TECH
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