Acquisition terminal fault prediction method and system based on Bayesian network optimization algorithm

Abstract

The invention discloses an acquisition terminal fault prediction method and system based on a Bayesian network optimization algorithm. In view of the potential fault risk in the operation of an acquisition terminal, the operation state of the acquisition terminal is evaluated reasonably, and thus, the fault of the acquisition terminal can be predicted. An acquisition terminal fault prediction model is established by using a Bayesian network algorithm. In view of the fact that the acquisition terminal has many characteristic parameters which are associated complexly, a Bayesian network association diagram constructed by the experts in the power field is simplified by using a maximum principal sub-graph decomposition technology, and then, attribute association oriented mining is carried outon the association diagram through conditional independent test and local score test. Therefore, the Bayesian network algorithm is optimized, the state of the acquisition terminal in operation can beevaluated comprehensively and objectively, and the prediction accuracy of system is improved. The efficiency and feasibility of the method are verified by taking the electricity consumption information acquisition system of the State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company as an experimental platform.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a collection terminal failure prediction method and system based on a Bayesian network optimization algorithm. Background technique [0002] At present, the Chongqing Municipal Electric Power Company has built a city-level and county-level centralized electricity consumption information collection system. The power consumption information collection system of the power supply branch company has achieved access to 115,162 terminals, and the power consumption information collection system of the county-level power supply company has realized There are 114,977 access terminals. Whether the operation of the terminal is stable or not directly affects the quality of the collection, and ultimately affects the marketing business and even the application of the company's multiple disciplines to the collection data. However, the terminals must have their own failures, communication channels and other reasons during operation. This leads ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0002] At present, the Chongqing Municipal Electric Power Company has built a city-level and county-level centralized electricity consumption information collection system. The power consumption information collection system of the power supply branch company has achieved access to 115,162 terminals, and the power consumption information collection system of the county-level power supply company has realized There are 114,977 access terminals. Whether the operation of the terminal is stable or not directly affects the quality of the collection, and ultimately affects the marketing business and even the application of the company's multiple disciplines to the collection data. However, the terminals must have their own failures, communication channels and other reasons during operation. Leading to the failure of normal collection, which affects the success rate of collection and negatively affects key businesses such as meter reading and settlement

[0003] At present, terminal fault processing is mainly monitored through indicators such as online rate and acquisition success rate. Fault-based diagnostic algorithms are also being proposed to deal with different fault problems. For example, Guo Chuangxin of Zhejiang University et al. Various research methods (including expert system, artificial neural network, optimization technology, Petri network, rough set theory, fuzzy set theory and multi-agent technology, etc.) are analyzed, and the key technical problems and major developments that need to be solved in this field are pointed out Trend; Zhang Xiao et al. from China University of Mining and Technology analyzed the mathematical model of the output voltage of the AC side of the APF to establish the corresponding relationship between the output voltage of the AC side of each phase of the APF and the corresponding IGBT conduction duty cycle. Diagnose the open circuit fault and locate the fault location according to the difference between the output voltage and the corresponding IGBT conduction duty cycle; Li Gang et al. from Northeast Electric Power University, using the time-frequency characteristics of wavelet analysis, give a power system transient signal The singularity detection algorithm of the system obtains the location information of the fault point. The above fault diagnosis systems all belong to dispatching orders after the abnormality is found. At this time, the terminal fault has occurred and various negative effects have appeared. At the same time, the field personnel must quickly rush to each fault. The location of the terminal consumes a lot of manpower and material resources

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