Flood disaster emergency material dynamic demand prediction method
A technology for emergency materials and demand forecasting, applied in the field of network logistics analysis, which can solve the problems of difficult model construction and complex calculation process.
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[0054] Step 1: According to the statistics of the affected population released by the Hunan Flood Control and Drought Relief Network on March 28, 2016, the initial sequence of the affected population (one day is a time period, unit: ten thousand people) is obtained after sorting and summarizing as follows:
[0055] = (4.66, 7.9, 22.25, 24.33, 36.46, 57.33, 58.73, 66.48, 112.23, 122.55, 157.78, 185.8)
[0056] First select the first five data in the initial series for modeling, namely:
[0057] = (4.66, 7.9, 22.25, 24.33, 36.46)
[0058] Thus, its 1-AGO sequence can be obtained as
[0059] = (4.66,12.56, 34.81, 59.14, 95.6)
[0060] The immediate mean generating sequence of is
[0061] = (8.61,23.685,46.975,77.37)
[0062] therefore
[0063]
[0064] So you can get
[0065]
[0066] Substitute into formula (6) to get The time response equation for is:
[0067] (12)
[0068] Step 2: When When , the sequence of analog values obtained by substituting...
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