Method for predicting hourly scattering ratios on basis of astronomical and meteorological environmental factors

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for predicting hourly scattering ratios on the basis of astronomical and meteorological environmental factors. The method includes steps of (1), acquiring radiation data, astronomical data and meteorological environmental data; (2), dividing weather types including fine weather types, fine-to-cloudy weather types, fine-to-overcast weather types, cloudy-to-overcastweather types and rain, snow and haze weather types; (3), selecting preset models according to the weather types to predict the hourly scattering ratios, to be more specific, predicting the hourly scattering ratios by the aid of PCA-LMBP (principal component analysis-Levenberg Marquardt back propagation) neural network models when the weather types are the fine weather types, the fine-to-cloudy weather types and the fine-to-overcast weather types, predicting the hourly scattering ratios by the aid of LMBP neutral network models when the weather types are the cloudy-to-overcast weather types,and predicting the hourly scattering ratios by the aid of linear regression models when the weather types are the rain, snow and haze weather types. The PCA-LMBP neutral network models, the LMBP neutral network models and the linear regression models are prediction models screened on the basis of astronomical factors, meteorological factors and the weather types. Compared with the prior art, the method has the advantage of accurate and reliable prediction results.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a time-by-time scattering ratio prediction method, in particular to a time-by-time scattering ratio prediction method based on astronomical and meteorological environmental factors. Background technique [0002] Recently, the National Energy Administration released the "Brief Information on the Construction and Operation of Photovoltaic Power Generation in the First Half of 2017". According to statistics, as of the first half of 2017, the total amount of grid-connected photovoltaics in my country reached 101.82GW, of which: photovoltaic power stations accounted for 84.39GW, accounting for 83%, and distributed photovoltaics accounted for 17.43GW, accounting for 17%. As of June, more than 10 provinces have installed more than 6GW of photovoltaic capacity. Judging from the distribution of new installed capacity, the trend of shifting from the northwest region to the central and eastern regions is more obvious. The newly ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, for the current common hour-scale direct-dispersive separation model, it is difficult to improve the prediction accuracy of scattering ratio by only considering a single independent variable.

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