Distribution network scheduling method comprehensively considering photovoltaic output and load demand prediction intervals

Abstract

The invention discloses a distribution network scheduling method comprehensively considering photovoltaic output and load demand prediction intervals. The distribution network scheduling method comprises the steps of firstly building a photovoltaic output prediction interval model based on the illumination intensity which approximates to Beta distribution, secondly building a load demand prediction interval model by combining an empirical mode decomposition method and a sparse Bayesian learning method on the basis of a power consumption load layering probability prediction method, and finallyputting forward a scheduling model considering the distribution network operating reliability and economy based on the photovoltaic output prediction interval and the load demand prediction interval.The method provided by the invention not only solves a problem of power supply unreliability caused by uncertainty of photovoltaic power generation output, but also reduces the distribution network economic operation cost caused by difficult prediction for the photovoltaic power generation and load. The distribution network scheduling method can be widely applied to distribution network schedulingof a power network.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a distribution network dispatching method that comprehensively considers photovoltaic output and load demand prediction interval, and belongs to the technical field of distribution network operation optimization dispatching including photovoltaic new energy generation. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the rapid development of human society and economy, the problems of energy depletion and environmental pollution have become more and more serious. As of 2009, 44 cities in my country have been classified as resource-exhausted. In order to deal with energy and environmental issues, renewable distributed energy generation technology has been developed rapidly. According to the data from the BP World Energy Statistics website, solar power generation in 2013 increased by about 110TWh compared with 2009, an increase of nearly 10 times, and the proportion of power generation in recent years has continued to grow. H...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The above research considers the economics of distribution network dispatching, the uncertainty of load forecasting, and the volatility of distributed energy generation. However, both the economics of photovoltaic power generation dispatching and the uncertainty of photovoltaic output and power load are considered There are few reports on the distribution network dispatching that influences the reliability of the distribution network operation, and further research is still needed.

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