Wind power grid-connection system operational reliability evaluation method considering uncertainty factors

Abstract

The invention relates to a reliability analysis method of an electric power system, specifically a wind power grid-connection system operational reliability evaluation method considering uncertainty factors, and solves the problems of incomplete consideration, long time consumption, slow convergence, resource occupation and incapability of realizing real-time prediction and evaluation of the existing method. A scheme comprises the processes as follows: I, uncertainty factor modeling: A, load comprehensive uncertainty; B, a conventional power generator comprehensive time varying operation model; C, comprehensive time varying operation modeling; D, wind power plant operational reliability modeling; and II, a Markov chain model: E, a Markov process and a Markov chain; F, a wind power Markov chain model; and G a wind power reliability evaluation index. The beneficial effects are achieved as follows: by performing quantitative analysis and comparison on the degree of influence of load fluctuation, element state and wind power output on the operational state and reliability level, the reliability level at the current moment can be evaluated, and the state probability at the future momentcan be quickly predicted, so that planning, overhaul, operation optimization and dispatching of the electric power system can be guided, thereby overcoming the shortcomings of the conventional evaluation method.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for analyzing the reliability of a power system, in particular to a method for evaluating the reliability of a wind power grid-connected system considering uncertain factors. Background technique [0002] With the continuous improvement of wind power penetration, wind power output fluctuations intensify the randomness of power grid operation status and power flow distribution, which has brought a huge impact on system reliability. In order to avoid large-scale blackout accidents, from the perspective of system operation, it is of great significance to accurately evaluate the reliability level of wind power grid-connected system and predict the probability of system operation state in the future to guide the operation and dispatch of the power grid. [0003] However, due to the intermittent and unpredictability of wind power output, coupled with the uncertain status of grid components and large load fluctuations, the ac...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The present invention solves the problems that the existing grid system operation reliability evaluation method does not consider comprehensive factors, the simulation method takes a long time, the convergence speed is slow, requires large computing resources, and cannot realize real-time prediction and evaluation, and provides a method that takes uncertainty factors into account The operation reliability evaluation method of wind power grid-connected system

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