Multi-path typhoon storm surge fast prediction method and system

Abstract

The present invention belongs to the storm surge prediction field and relates to a multi-path typhoon storm surge fast prediction method and system. According to the multi-path typhoon storm surge fast prediction method and system of the invention, on the basis of the current typhoon information of a current typhoon, a circular area affected by the typhoon after first time can be obtained; the circular area is divided into a plurality of grid sub-regions; a plurality of predictive moving paths of the current typhoon are obtained according to the latitude and longitude coordinates of the vertices of all the grid sub-regions and the current typhoon information; and storm surge data corresponding to the latitude and longitude coordinates of the center of the typhoon in a process in which the typhoon moves from a location where the center of the current typhoon is located along each predictive moving path in the first time according to a preset time interval and on the basis of a preset local information database. With the method and system of the invention adopted, the accuracy of the typhoon storm surge prediction of each predictive moving path can be improved; and requirements for storm surge refined prediction and government disaster prevention decision making can be satisfied.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of storm surge prediction, in particular to a multi-path typhoon fast prediction method and system. Background technique [0002] Most meteorological departments at home and abroad use the "probability circle diagram method" to forecast the typhoon track ( figure 1 ), that is, the meteorological department conducts error statistical analysis on the typhoon forecast path, and obtains the forecast path error ΔR with the highest probability of forecast occurrence. Take the 24-hour forecast as an example, and so on for other times. Point A in the diagram represents the currently observed center of the typhoon, and the circle with B as the center is the forecasted "probability circle for the next 24 hours". ). Considering that the typhoon may go fast (point D), slow (point C), left (point F), and right (point E), the Japan Meteorological Agency, the National Oceanic Forecasting Office and other units have begun to use f...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

If only five paths are used for forecasting, there will be cases of under-reporting of water increase data;

[0005] 2. With the rapid development of coastal economy, coastal local governments and the public have higher and higher requirements for storm surge forecasting ability and level, and the forecast of water increment data of five paths can no longer meet the requirements of fine storm surge forecasting and government disaster prevention decision-making. need

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