Method for identifying key factors of overseas oil investment risk

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for identifying key factors of an overseas oil investment risk. The method comprises the steps of 1, acquiring historical data according to carded basic factors, and performing data basic processing; 2, constructing a measurement model for identifying the key factors of the overseas oil investment risk, and calculating associated analysis between the risk factors and an investment target; 3, performing comprehensive analysis on instantaneous and delayed fluctuation response; and 4, performing screening and sequencing on calculation results, and performing checking according to a key element identification rule. The method according to the invention can realize identification and analysis for the key factors of the overseas oil investment risk with relatively small data volume.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the identification technology of overseas oil investment risk factors, and in particular relates to a method for identifying key elements of overseas oil risk investment in an uncertain environment. Background technique [0002] Due to the large investment, long cycle, and significant impact of oil price fluctuations and the economic and political influence of the host country, overseas oil investment is of great significance to identify key risk factors and formulate effective countermeasures to protect overseas oil investment income and reduce losses. However, since overseas oil investment involves many aspects and complex associations, and the information is vague and difficult to measure accurately, there is great uncertainty and subjectivity in the identification and judgment of risk factors in overseas oil investment. [0003] The identification of risk factors is to analyze and distinguish the risk factors in the process...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0007] ① The graphical analysis system represented by the fault tree is an important analysis tool for project management, which is biased towards interpretive static structure analysis and long-term evolution trend analysis, but cannot well reflect the transient state of factors for overseas oil investment activities with strong dynamics and sudden fluctuations

[0008] ②The structural diagram analysis is more important than the description of the influence path of factors and the system operation mechanism. Because the external environment of overseas oil investment has the characteristics of high frequency, high amplitude and irregular fluctuations, and the investment activity itself has the attributes of large investment and long cycle, resulting in The impact of risk elements is cross-cutting and compound, so there are conditional assumptions in the identification process that are too idealistic

This leads to the harshness of regression analysis in the selection of elements and tools. When the selection of elements is inappropriate or the quantitative relationship is difficult to describe, it is difficult to judge the conclusions with reference value.

[0011] To sum up, in terms of quantitative analysis tools for identifying key elements of overseas oil investment risks, existing tools and programs are difficult to meet the accuracy and applicability requirements of overseas oil investment, and specialized analysis techniques are still relatively lacking

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