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Power grid investment analysis model evaluation method

An analysis model and evaluation method technology, applied in the field of power grid project investment analysis, can solve problems such as different structures, mixed good and bad, and the reliability of evaluation results cannot be guaranteed, and achieve the effect of high reliability

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-04-26
STATE GRID HEBEI ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD
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  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] The investment benefit evaluation of power grid infrastructure projects is a necessary part of power grid construction. Combining various factors in the investment process of power grid construction, from multiple dimensions such as power grid security and power supply capacity, an evaluation model is established for scientific and quantitative evaluation of investment benefits. However, the existing technology Among them, each company uses one or several investment models, with different structures, different evaluation standards, good and bad, and the reliability of the evaluation results obtained cannot be guaranteed.

Method used

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  • Power grid investment analysis model evaluation method

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0094] Example 1, 13 investment projects with a voltage level of 220-1000 kV are used as the basis for model training for calculation:

[0095] 2.1.1 Index quantification and normalization

[0096] Index quantification: Data statistics come from multiple work departments, resulting in inconsistent data units and forms; the representation method and measurement unit of the same parameter in multiple samples (that is, investment projects) may be inconsistent, so each parameter is first calculated according to the regulations. Convert the format to make it consistent; for example, the "load growth rate" indicator may be expressed as 5%, 0.05, 5, which needs to be converted to the specified format.

[0097] Normalization: The representation of the same parameter in multiple samples may be diverse and not comparable. For example, the representation of a parameter in multiple samples may be expressed by quantity, and some by ratio, which is not comparable ; For some indicators, in ...

Embodiment 2

[0175] In the second embodiment, 29 investment projects with a voltage level of 35-110 kV are used as the basis of model training for calculation.

[0176] The average score of the expert ratings of the 29 selected items is shown in Table 7

[0177]

[0178]

[0179]3.1 First, 29 sample parameters are quantified and normalized, and the scoring mechanism is a 100-point system.

[0180] 3.2. After selecting the second-level index as strengthening the grid structure among the 129 samples, the sample set is as follows Figure 6 shown.

[0181] right Figure 6 After performing multiple linear regression on the three-level indicators in , the obtained coefficients are:

[0182] The constant term is 54.7;

[0183] Coefficient 1 (that is, reducing the number of overloaded lines in normal operation after N-1 occurrence of lines in the area, referred to as unit investment to reduce the number of overloaded lines) is 1.7;

[0184] Then, the index score of strengthening grid st...

Embodiment 3

[0246] Select 39 investment projects with a voltage level of 10 kV and below as the basis for model training. The specific projects and average scores of experts are shown in Table 10:

[0247]

[0248]

[0249]

[0250] 4.1 Sample quantification and normalization

[0251] The samples of 10kV power grid investment projects are quantified and normalized, and the scoring mechanism is a 100-point system.

[0252] 4.2.1 Select the secondary index to strengthen the grid structure

[0253] The sample set obtained after selecting the second-level index from the above 39 investment projects as strengthening the grid structure is as follows: Figure 13 Shown:

[0254] Obviously, the two third-level indicators are not related to each other, and linear regression can be performed separately:

[0255] For the first three-level indicator, linear regression calculates the coefficients:

[0256] The constant term is 57.49111989;

[0257] Coefficient 1 is 8.716084235;

[0258] ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid investment analysis model evaluation method, and the method comprises the steps: building two types of power grid investment analysis models, wherein each type of power grid investment analysis model comprises four dimensions which form first-level indexes, each dimension is provided with an investment key direction serving as a second-level index, and the evaluation factor of each investment key direction serves a third-level index; calculating target values of the third-level indexes determining the scores of the second-level indexes; integrating the scores of the second-level indexes, and calculating the scores of the first-level indexes. According to the invention, the method achieves the evaluation of an investment project through the power grid investment analysis model in scientific and reasonable design and structure, and can automatically calculate the comprehensive assessment score of the investment project through the target values of all expected targets inputted into the investment project. The method also can order a plurality of investment projections according to the result of an evaluation score of a single index, is high in reliability, and has the popularization value in serving as an industrial evaluation standard.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid project investment analysis, and in particular relates to a power grid investment analysis model evaluation method. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the electric power industry is facing a severe situation. The asset-liability ratio of most companies has increased year by year, and the profit loss. Therefore, in order to ensure the healthy development of power grid enterprises, a scientific and reasonable evaluation system for power grid investment projects is needed to achieve the goals of reducing operating costs, improving economic benefits, and expanding investment returns. [0003] The investment benefit evaluation of power grid infrastructure projects is a necessary part of power grid construction. Combining various factors in the investment process of power grid construction, from multiple dimensions such as power grid security and power supply capacity, an evaluation model...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/067G06Q50/06
Inventor 周京龙杨玉新陈虹邵华凌云鹏马国真崔威胡珀
Owner STATE GRID HEBEI ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD
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