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Method for calculating the index parameter of grid investment analysis model

A technology of analysis model and calculation method, applied in the field of power grid project investment analysis, which can solve the problems of different structures, uneven quality and inability to guarantee the reliability of evaluation results.

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-03-22
STATE GRID HEBEI ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] The investment benefit evaluation of power grid infrastructure projects is a necessary part of power grid construction. Combining various factors in the investment process of power grid construction, from multiple dimensions such as power grid security and power supply capacity, an evaluation model is established for scientific and quantitative evaluation of investment benefits. However, the existing technology Among them, each company uses one or several investment models, with different structures, different evaluation standards, good and bad, and the reliability of the evaluation results obtained cannot be guaranteed.

Method used

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  • Method for calculating the index parameter of grid investment analysis model
  • Method for calculating the index parameter of grid investment analysis model
  • Method for calculating the index parameter of grid investment analysis model

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Experimental program
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Embodiment 1

[0143] Example 1, 13 investment projects with a voltage level of 220-1000 kV are used as the basis for model training for calculation:

[0144] 2.1.1 Index quantification and normalization

[0145] Index quantification: Data statistics come from multiple work departments, resulting in inconsistent data units and forms; the representation method and measurement unit of the same parameter in multiple samples (that is, investment projects) may be inconsistent, so each parameter is first calculated according to the regulations. Convert the format to make it consistent; for example, the "load growth rate" indicator may be expressed as 5%, 0.05, 5, which needs to be converted to the specified format.

[0146] Normalization: The representation of the same parameter in multiple samples may be diverse and not comparable. For example, the representation of a parameter in multiple samples may be expressed by quantity, and some by ratio, which is not comparable ; For some indicators, in ...

Embodiment 2

[0237] In the second embodiment, 29 investment projects with a voltage level of 35-110 kV are used as the basis of model training for calculation.

[0238] The average score of the expert ratings of the 29 selected items is shown in Table 7

[0239]

[0240]

[0241] 3.1 First, 29 sample parameters are quantified and normalized, and the scoring mechanism is a 100-point system.

[0242] 3.2.1 After selecting the second-level index as strengthening the grid structure among the 29 samples, the sample set is as follows Figure 6 shown.

[0243] right Figure 6 After performing multiple linear regression on the three-level indicators in , the obtained coefficients are:

[0244] The constant term is 54.7;

[0245] Coefficient one is 1.7;

[0246] Then, the index score of strengthening grid structure = 54.7+1.7* unit investment reduces the number of overloaded lines;

[0247] The constant term in this formula is too large and the coefficient is too low, which is not a goo...

Embodiment 3

[0308] Select 39 investment projects with a voltage level of 10 kV and below as the basis for model training. The specific projects and average scores of experts are shown in Table 10:

[0309]

[0310]

[0311]

[0312] 4.1 Sample quantification and normalization

[0313] The samples of 10kV power grid investment projects are quantified and normalized, and the scoring mechanism is a 100-point system.

[0314] 4.2.1 Select the secondary index to strengthen the grid structure

[0315] The sample set obtained after selecting the second-level index from the above 39 investment projects as strengthening the grid structure is as follows: Figure 13 Shown:

[0316] Obviously, the two third-level indicators are not related to each other, and linear regression can be performed separately:

[0317] For the first three-level indicator, linear regression calculates the coefficients:

[0318] The constant term is 57.49111989;

[0319] Coefficient 1 is 8.716084235;

[0320] ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for calculating the index parameter of a grid investment analysis model, wherein the model comprises a plurality of investment key directions as second-level indexes, and the evaluation factor of each investment key direction is used as a three-level index, and the method comprises: setting a second-level index score calculating rule and a three-level index score calculating rule; selecting a specific investment project as training calculation basic data to be substituted into the corresponding three-level index, calculating a three-level index score according to the set three-level index score calculating rule; according to the second index score calculating rules, substituting into the three-level index score to calculate second-level index scores; using the sum of the second-level index scores as the investment project score. The method is based on the grid investment analysis model, provides scoring rules according to grid investment analysis models of different voltage classes, such as the formula or added and subtracted items; can performing scoring based on the actual investment project data, and reflects the prospective earning value of the investment project objectively.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid project investment analysis, and in particular relates to a method for calculating a training index of a power grid investment analysis model. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the electric power industry is facing a severe situation. The asset-liability ratio of most companies has increased year by year, and the profit loss. Therefore, in order to ensure the healthy development of power grid enterprises, a scientific and reasonable evaluation system for power grid investment projects is needed to achieve the goals of reducing operating costs, improving economic benefits, and expanding investment returns. [0003] The investment benefit evaluation of power grid infrastructure projects is a necessary part of power grid construction. Combining various factors in the investment process of power grid construction, from multiple dimensions such as power grid security and power supply ca...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q50/06
Inventor 韩长占吴向明阎鹏飞贺春光王颖马伟梅晓辉魏博
Owner STATE GRID HEBEI ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD
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