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A photovoltaic ultra-short-term power prediction method and device

A power prediction, ultra-short-term technology, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as complex photovoltaic power generation ultra-short-term power prediction algorithms

Active Publication Date: 2020-05-19
XUCHANG XJ SOFTWARE TECH +3
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to propose a photovoltaic ultra-short-term power prediction method to solve the problem in the prior art that the ultra-short-term power prediction algorithm of photovoltaic power generation is complicated

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  • A photovoltaic ultra-short-term power prediction method and device
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  • A photovoltaic ultra-short-term power prediction method and device

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Embodiment Construction

[0078] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0079] Such as figure 1 Shown is the method flowchart of the present invention, specifically:

[0080] 1) Determine the period T of the sample data required for ultra-short-term forecasting i According to the configuration, the historical data of the N days before the photovoltaic power station is obtained, and the data includes the power generation of the photovoltaic power station and the weather forecast data. Among them, it is necessary to delete the abnormal historical data. Abnormal data include: when the solar irradiance is zero, the output power of photovoltaic power generation is not zero; and when the solar irradiance or photovoltaic power output power changes are all zero or there is a surge phenomenon.

[0081] 2) Extract the output power of photovoltaic power generation in the historical data, and use the K-means clustering algorithm to cluste...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic ultra-short period power predicting method and device. According to the method, according to the predicting period of sample data needed for ultra-short period prediction, historical data of a photovoltaic power station at the period every day are obtained, power generation efficiency in the historical data is extracted, and a sample set of power generation efficiency similar days of the predicting period is obtained through the related formula or algorithm; then, irradiance in the weather attribute in the weather forecast data in the predicting period is extracted as a feature vector, and a sample set of weather attribute feature similar days is obtained through the related formula or algorithm; then, an intersection part of the two similar day sample sets is selected as a sample data set for ultra-short period power prediction, weighted average is conducted on the data in the sample data set, and an optimal sample data set is obtained; finally, processing and calculating are conducted on the data in the optimal sample data set, and the power prediction value is obtained. The irradiance with the greatest influence is selected from the multiple weather attributes influencing the power to predict the power, calculation is simple, and errors are small.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of new energy power generation, and in particular relates to a photovoltaic ultra-short-term power prediction method and device. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the strong support of the governments of various countries, new energy power generation technologies have developed rapidly, especially photovoltaic power generation, which has the advantages of cleanness, environmental protection, pollution-free, wide distribution, and renewable. However, with the large-scale access of photovoltaic power generation to the grid, the randomness, intermittency and volatility of photovoltaic output have brought unprecedented pressure to the stable operation of the grid, which not only affects the quality of power, but also aggravates the load on the grid's peak-shaving operation. It also brings great difficulties to the dispatching work of the power grid. [0003] In order to cope with the impact of...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 李现伟陈斌邱俊宏李贞孔波利沈志广崔丽艳陶颍军樊鹏蒋怀贞张鹏远卜银娜张玉垒李义清李长耿
Owner XUCHANG XJ SOFTWARE TECH
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