Product life cycle identification method and device

Abstract

The invention provides a product life cycle identification method and device, which can identify life cycle and improve identification accuracy. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining sales data of products in a sales system, and extracting a life cycle pattern set from the data according to a product life cycle pattern extracting method, a product life cycle stage division method and sales curve similarity calculation method; determining the position of life stage of each life cycle pattern in the life cycle pattern set according to the product life cycle stage division method; calculating similarity between a sales curve of a new product and each life cycle pattern according to the sales curve similarity calculation method to obtain a similarity set; serving the life cycle pattern corresponding to the largest similarity in the similarity set as the life cycle pattern of the new product, and recording relative movement position of the sales curve of the new product when the similarity is the largest and the life cycle pattern of the new product; and determining the life cycle of the new product according to the position of life stage of the life cycle pattern of the new product and the relative movement position.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of computers and software thereof, in particular to a product life cycle identification method and device. Background technique [0002] Each product has a life cycle, and the product life cycle is divided into four parts: introduction period, growth period, maturity period, and decline period. The decline period can be further divided into two parts: the decline period and the terminal period. The product life cycle represents the entire evolution process of a product from entering the market to exiting the market. When the product is at different stages, the enterprise formulates different goals and strategies from marketing and other aspects, so as to maximize the interests of the enterprise. Therefore, the division, identification and forecast of the product life cycle and its related management are suitable for an enterprise to formulate appropriate strategies. It plays a vital role. Only when an ente...

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Problems solved by technology

[0008] The identification methods for the product growth cycle in the prior art mainly include: the sales growth rate judgment method, the analogy judgment method, the Gomperz curve method, and the Bass diffusion model; in the existing identification methods of the product growth cycle, the sales growth rate The judgment method and the analogy judgment method rely too much on experience and knowledge to judge the life cycle of a product. There are too many subjective factors and the result is not stable enough.

Both the Gomperz curve method and Bass diffusion model have formulated a corresponding mathematical model for the life cycle of a product. The two methods have a high fitting effect on products with a relatively complete life cycle, but for products in the introduction period (for example: new products) ), or products with large sales fluctuations (for example: sales surge brought about by large-scale promotional activities), the data fitting effect is poor due to reasons such as small data volume, short data time span, and large data fluctuations

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