Dynamic management method for water resource development and utilization control red line

Abstract

The invention discloses a dynamic management method for a water resource development and utilization control red line. The method comprises the following steps: performing cluster analysis on historical runoff data, determining the cluster of runoff in the current month, and selecting a water utilization amount initial index under the water coming frequency corresponding to the cluster of runoff in the current month from a different water coming frequency water utilization amount initial index library as the initial water utilization index of the current month; predicting the runoff of next month by adopting a sequential decision method according to the actual runoff and historical runoff data of the current month after the current month ends, and determining the initial water utilization index of next month; putting off the surplus obtained by subtracting the actual water utilization quantity from the initial water utilization index of the current month to next month, and adding the surplus to the initial water utilization index of next month to obtain a final predicted water utilization amount control index of next month. The method effectively improves the adaptability and constraint of the water resource development and utilization control red line in the water resource management process, and has very high practical value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of water resource management, in particular to a dynamic management method for controlling the red line of water resource development and utilization. Background technique [0002] The red line for the development and utilization of water resources is an important component of the most stringent water resources management system. The current red line for the control of water resources development and utilization reflects the constraints on the total amount of water consumption under the average multi-year conditions. Adaptive management of water resources development and utilization control red line in incoming water frequency and research on the calculation of total water consumption control indicators are current research hotspots in water resources management, and are also important scientific and technological requirements for implementing the most stringent water resources management system. [0003] In the curre...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, in terms of constraints on users’ water consumption behavior, even if the total water consumption control indicators under different water inflow frequencies are set, if there is no runoff forecasting measure, the total water consumption can only be assessed at the end of the year. The constraints of the actual water withdrawal process are extremely limited, which greatly reduces the adaptability and constraints of the red line of water resources development and utilization.

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