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Hybrid Laplace distribution-based wind power fluctuation quantity probability distribution model building method

A technology of wind power fluctuation and probability distribution, which is applied in wind power generation, electrical components, circuit devices, etc., can solve the problem that the fluctuation law of wind power varies greatly, it is difficult to accurately reflect the peak probability of wind power fluctuation, and it is difficult to accurately describe wind power fluctuation. characteristics and other issues to achieve the effect of improving accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2016-09-14
UNIV OF ELECTRONICS SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Due to the strong randomness of wind power changes, the fluctuation laws of wind power vary greatly on different temporal and spatial scales, and it is difficult to accurately describe the fluctuation characteristics of wind power with a time series analysis method on a single temporal and spatial scale.
The use of non-parametric estimation methods to describe the fluctuation characteristics of wind power often requires a large amount of sample data, and the existing data have confirmed that the probability distribution of wind power fluctuations presents a clear regularity, so the non-parametric estimation method is not the optimal solution
The probability distribution of wind power fluctuations presents a strong heavy-tailed characteristic. For parametric estimation methods, traditional distribution models are difficult to accurately reflect the peak probability of wind power fluctuations near the mean value

Method used

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  • Hybrid Laplace distribution-based wind power fluctuation quantity probability distribution model building method
  • Hybrid Laplace distribution-based wind power fluctuation quantity probability distribution model building method
  • Hybrid Laplace distribution-based wind power fluctuation quantity probability distribution model building method

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[0020] figure 1 It is a flowchart of a method for establishing a probability distribution model of wind power fluctuations based on a mixed Laplace distribution in the present invention. like figure 1 As shown, the present invention is based on the mixed Laplace distribution wind power fluctuation probability distribution model establishment method comprising the following steps:

[0021] S101: Calculating wind power fluctuations:

[0022] According to the measured wind power data of the wind farm and the preset time scale Δt, calculate the wind power fluctuation sequence P=[p 1 ,p 2 ,p 3 ,···,p M ] T , where M represents the dimension of the wind power fluctuation sequence.

[0023] In the prior art, the first-order difference ΔP=P(t+Δt)-P(t) of the wind power data is usually used as the wind power fluctuation, and the wind power output change rate P v =[P(t+Δt)-P(t)] / P N As wind power fluctuations, where P(t+Δt) and P(t) represent the wind power at time t+Δt and tim...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a hybrid Laplace distribution-based wind power fluctuation quantity probability distribution model building method. The method comprises the steps of firstly, calculating a wind power fluctuation quantity sequence according to actually measured wind power data of a wind farm and a default time scale; building a hybrid Laplace distribution model; and determining a parameter of the hybrid Laplace distribution model according to the wind power fluctuation quantity sequence, thereby obtaining a wind power probability distribution model. By the wind power probability distribution model obtained by the method, the wind power fluctuation characteristics can be accurately described; especially, the accuracy of heavy-tailed characteristic description of wind power fluctuation distribution is improved; and aiming at the description problem of wind power fluctuation of different temporal and spatial scale levels, the model can also reach the satisfactory accuracy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power fluctuation characteristic analysis, and more specifically relates to a method for establishing a probability distribution model of wind power fluctuation based on mixed Laplace distribution. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of new energy power generation technology, the demand for large-scale wind power grid connection has further increased, and the volatility and intermittency of wind power not only affect the power quality, but also increase the difficulty of grid planning and scheduling, and also affect the security and stability of the grid. operation poses a potential risk. Minute-scale fluctuations affect the control performance of the AGC of the power system; hour-scale fluctuations affect the real-time scheduling of the power system within a day; daily fluctuations affect the arrangement of peak-shaving methods of the power system; year-to-month fluctuations aff...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): H02J3/38G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/367H02J3/386H02J2203/20Y02E10/76
Inventor 李坚黄琦周统汉陈峦何亚张真源井实梁浩鲁尔洁
Owner UNIV OF ELECTRONICS SCI & TECH OF CHINA
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