Power system emergency material demand prediction method based on multiple regressions

A technology for emergency materials and power grid systems, which is applied in the field of demand forecasting of emergency materials in power grid systems based on multiple regression, can solve problems such as the ambiguity of emergency materials forecasting, and achieve the goal of avoiding repeated reserves and insufficient reserves, improving the level of reserves, and avoiding waste of funds. Effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-07-20
海南电网有限责任公司
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Problems solved by technology

The combination of these factors leads to ambiguity in emergency supply forecasts

Method used

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  • Power system emergency material demand prediction method based on multiple regressions
  • Power system emergency material demand prediction method based on multiple regressions
  • Power system emergency material demand prediction method based on multiple regressions

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Embodiment Construction

[0018] The method of forecasting emergency supplies based on the multiple regression method specifically includes the following steps:

[0019] 1) Collect historical data statistics from the database of relevant departments of the power grid system, the demand for various materials after the occurrence of natural disaster events, and the values ​​​​of various variable factors. It is proposed that there are n factors related to the quantity to be predicted, and each factor represents a type that affects the demand for emergency supplies, represented by X mn Indicates the normalized value of the nth factor in known historical events m, and A n Indicates the influence coefficient of the nth factor on the predicted value, and obtains the following mathematical model:

[0020] A 1 x 11 +A 2 x 12 +...+A n x 1n =X 1 ;

[0021] A 1 x 21 +A 2 x 22 +...+A n x 2n =X 2 ;

[0022] A 1 x m1 +A 2 x m2 +...+A n x mn =X m ;

[0023] x m Indicates the predicted value o...

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Abstract

The present invention discloses a power system emergency material demand prediction method based on multiple regressions. The method comprises the steps consisting of modeling, normalization processing, multiple regression training, verification and the like. The power system emergency material demand prediction method based on multiple regression integrates factors such as local power grid scale, disaster event characteristics (disaster grade and the like), response grade and the like, builds a mathematics model according to the multiple regression method, obtains influence coefficients of emergency material prediction corresponding to each factor through adoption of historical data training, and rapidly calculates the demand for each emergency material after some disaster event happens through adoption of a prediction model to guide relevant departments to store or purchase materials according to the demand, so that it is ensured that the power network emergency maintenance is smoothly performed, and the fund waste caused by excessive storage or purchasing is avoided.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting emergency supplies and equipment demand in a power grid system after a natural disaster, in particular to a forecasting method for emergency supplies demand in a power grid system based on a multiple regression method. Background technique [0002] Frequent disasters such as typhoons along the coast of China have resulted in frequent damage to the power grid. In order to immediately repair the power grid and restore normal power supply to users, the guarantee of emergency supplies for power grid system maintenance is very important. However, due to the sudden nature of disasters, the unpredictability of the degree of damage, and the lag in the arrival of materials ordered, the emergency materials reserve may be short or redundant in terms of variety and quantity, resulting in a decrease in the overall guarantee factor and a waste of funds. Therefore, the reasonable prediction of emergency materials can ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 眭楷王为民孙立民王语涵符小夏陈长智王少勇韩逸穗杨强孙阳山郑辉朋王中林才就赖斯
Owner 海南电网有限责任公司
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