Provincial power-grid monthly electricity purchasing risk management method considering wind power uncertainty

Abstract

The invention relates to a provincial power-grid monthly electricity purchasing risk management method considering wind power uncertainty. The method comprises the following steps of establishing a monthly peak load and valley load state peak adjustment risk measurement index; establishing a monthly peak load and valley load state branch trend out-of-limit risk measurement index; establishing a monthly electric quantity balance up and down out-of-limit risk measurement index; and establishing a provincial power-grid monthly electricity purchasing risk management method model. The method has the advantages that the established monthly peak load and valley load state peak adjustment, the monthly peak load and valley load state branch trend out-of-limit risk and the monthly electric quantity balance up and down risk measurement index can realize effective measurement of a monthly electricity purchasing plan risk and physical connotation of an electric power market risk measurement index is enriched; the established provincial power-grid monthly electricity purchasing risk management method model can realize effective management between economic benefits and the risks so that a new idea is provided for future bringing large scale wind power into monthly electric power and energy balance.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a monthly power purchase risk management method of a provincial power grid considering the uncertainty of wind power. Background technique [0002] In the electricity market environment, the operating goal of the power grid company is to achieve the greatest economic benefits on the basis of safe operation of the power grid, and the realization of this goal is generally obtained by the monthly power purchase plan accounting for more than 80% of the total transaction volume and the expansion of this Annual power purchase plan completed [1] . Therefore, the research on the monthly power purchase plan has important practical significance for the realization of the economic benefits of the power grid company. [0003] On the other hand, the regional differences in China's electricity supply and demand determine the decisive role of the regional electricity market (this paper specifically refers to the common electricity market) i...

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Problems solved by technology

However, in view of the large randomness of wind power output and the serious lag of its forecasting technology, the existing literature focuses more on the daily time domain when studying the power purchase plan with wind power output uncertainty. [6-8] At present, there is no literature report on incorporating wind power into the monthly power balance, which makes provincial power grids with a large proportion of wind power face huge challenges when formulating monthly power purchase plans

[0004] In the existing monthly power purchase plan research, literature [9-11] established a provincial power grid monthly power purchase plan model that only includes pure thermal power systems, and did not consider the randomness of load power; literature [12] considered the randomness of load power The monthly power purchase plan model of the provincial power grid for the pure thermal power system was established; the literature [13-15] studied the monthly power purchase plan model under the pure market environment, but did not consider the randomness of wind power output, which is not suitable for my country The market environment of "wind-fixed power", and did not consider the safety constraints of branch power flow; literature [16] established a provincial power grid monthly power purchase plan model including the randomness of hydropower output, but did not consider the safety constraints of branch power flow; literature [16] [17] When establishing the monthly power purchase plan model of the provincial power grid including the randomness of hydropower output, it is required that the "arbitrary random state" strictly satisfy the safety constraints of branch power flows, which cannot meet the needs of maximizing economic benefits in the market environment

[0005] In the regional power market environment, due to the strong coupling relationship between off-grid power purchase plans and power quantities (there must be a definite functional relationship between power and quantity) [18] As well as the superimposed effect of the large uncertainty of wind power output, under the current reality that the structure of my country's power grid is generally weak, this is likely to make the provincial power grid face the following three serious problems in the monthly power purchase: 1) The monthly peak load and It is difficult to adjust the peak up and down of the system in the valley load state; 2) The power flow of each branch in the monthly peak load and valley load state has exceeded the limit; 3) The monthly power cannot maintain balance

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