A Probabilistic Model-Based Prediction Method of Aircraft Icing Intensity Index

A prediction method and a technology of strength index, applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of model result output changes, sensor measurement errors, etc., and achieve the effect of improving safety and high precision

Active Publication Date: 2018-01-30
NORTHWESTERN POLYTECHNICAL UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

At the same time, the sensor also has measurement errors in the measurement of these parameters
These reasons cause the parameters in the aircraft icing prediction model to have objective random uncertainties, and small fluctuations in some key parameters in the model may lead to huge changes in the output of the model results

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  • A Probabilistic Model-Based Prediction Method of Aircraft Icing Intensity Index
  • A Probabilistic Model-Based Prediction Method of Aircraft Icing Intensity Index
  • A Probabilistic Model-Based Prediction Method of Aircraft Icing Intensity Index

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Embodiment Construction

[0025] Now in conjunction with embodiment, accompanying drawing, the present invention will be further described:

[0026] The prediction equation of the aircraft icing factor y is shown in formula (1), which can be used to evaluate whether the aircraft is icing in a bad flight weather environment.

[0027] y=4.9335+0.002016V+0.00818(P-P 0 )-4.4358R+0.2839H (1)

[0028] where V is the flight speed (km h -1 ), H is flight altitude (km), P 0 , P are the air pressure (hPa) at 0°C and the height of H respectively, and R is the relative humidity (%) at the height of H, which can be solved by formula (2).

[0029]

[0030] In the formula, T d is the dew point temperature at the flight altitude, T is the air temperature at the flight altitude, a and b are parameters, specifically a=7.5, b=237.3.

[0031] Research shows that: when y-2.98≥0, the aircraft has no icing; y-2.98<0, the aircraft has icing. Therefore, the discriminant formula for aircraft icing events can be establi...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an aircraft icing intensity index prediction method based on a probability model. Uncertainties in measurement and analysis of flight speed and height, air pressure of the flight height, dew point temperature, air temperature and other parameters are processed by adopting uniform distribution and normal distribution, and analog computation is performed by adopting a sampling method of Monte Carlo, and finally, a probability value of an icing intensity index can be obtained. The aircraft icing intensity index prediction method based on the probability model provided by the invention overcomes the disadvantages in the existing aircraft icing intensity prediction technology that the parameter own fluctuation and parameter measuring error are not considered, a traditional method that V, P, P0, Td, T, H and other parameters are all determined values in an icing prediction model is changed, events (G1 is less than 0) are analyzed from a probability theory perspective, so as to reasonably evaluate a degree of icing possibility of the aircraft under severe flight weather, reach a higher precision on the prediction of aircraft icing intensity, and provide guidance for an aviator to select a suitable and effective driving operation under an icing meteorological environment, so as to improve the safety of aircraft flight.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to a method for predicting the icing intensity index of an aircraft in an icing weather environment, and in particular relates to a method for predicting an aircraft icing intensity index based on a probability model. Provide guidance on selecting appropriate and effective driving operations to improve the safety of aircraft flight. Background technique [0002] When an aircraft flies in a cloud layer containing supercooled water droplets, the supercooled water droplets will quickly freeze and accumulate into ice on the windward surface of the aircraft components, seriously threatening the flight safety of the aircraft. Slight icing will reduce the flight performance of the aircraft, resulting in a decrease in lift and increased drag, which will make it difficult to control the flight attitude; severe icing can cause the aircraft to stall at a small angle of attack, and even cause a tragedy of aircraft crash. According to statist...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 张峰张雷雷刘伟邓维维王富生敖良波岳珠峰
Owner NORTHWESTERN POLYTECHNICAL UNIV
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