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Grain yield prediction method and device

A yield forecasting and grain technology, applied in the field of grain yield forecasting, can solve the problem that grain forecasting methods cannot make forecasts quickly and accurately.

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-01-13
HENAN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a grain yield forecasting method and device to solve the problem that the existing grain forecasting methods cannot quickly and accurately predict in short-term forecasting

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Embodiment Construction

[0064] The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0065] A grain yield prediction method provided by the present invention has the advantages of fast execution speed and objective and accurate prediction results, and includes the following steps in sequence:

[0066] Step 1: Select the t years closest to the year to be predicted, collect the grain production data of each year and the data of various factors affecting grain production, and form these data into their respective time series;

[0067] Step 2: Calculate the rate of change of data in adjacent years in the time series of each factor respectively;

[0068] Step 3: Determine the year that has similar variation rules and trends with each factor in the t-th year, and form a set;

[0069] Step 4: For the set determined in step 3, assign a weighting factor to each element according to the distance between the year in the set and the t-th year; and calcu...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a grain yield prediction method and device. The method comprises the steps as follows: firstly, various factors influencing the grain yield are determined; secondly, the change rates of main factor time series are calculated, so that the latest year with the same change trend and influence degree of influence factors is searched; and finally, the change rates of different years are endowed with corresponding weights according to the time distance to a to-be-predicted year, and the grain yield change rate of the to-be-predicted year is obtained according to the weights, so that the grain yield is predicted. According to the grain yield prediction method provided by the invention, the influences on the grain yield caused by external main factors are comprehensively considered; the required data volume is low; the algorithm is simple; and the short-term grain yield can be quickly and accurately predicted.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of intelligent agriculture, in particular to a method and device for predicting grain output. Background technique [0002] my country is a country with a large population, and the importance of agriculture to our country is even more important. As an important part of agriculture, the importance of the grain industry is self-evident. With the continuous increase of population, agricultural problems are getting more and more attention. Among them, the accurate prediction of grain output is of great significance for the formulation of national economic development plan, production scheduling and planning, and is closely related to national security. Accurate prediction is also important. It is helpful for government departments to formulate macro-control policies related to grain. [0003] With the development of 3C technology, intelligent information system has become an important part of agricultural infor...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/02
Inventor 樊超杨铁军傅洪亮张德贤杨红卫乔丽红杨静李永锋马一萌刘兴家曹培格
Owner HENAN UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
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