Power cable operation maintenance method based on historical fault information and operating state

Abstract

The invention relates to a power cable operation maintenance method based on historical fault information and an operating state, wherein the method is used for predicting the residual life of a power cable and formulating a replacement strategy of the power cable. The method comprises the following steps of establishment of a weibull proportional hazard model, solution to parameters in the weibull proportional hazard model, resolving of a power cable state decision curve, prediction of the residual life of the power cable; and formulation of a maintenance and replacement strategy of the power cable. With the method, reasonability and reliability of cable fault prediction are improved; the operating situation of the cable can be displayed visually and clearly; and a reference can be provided for making a decision of cable maintenance and replacement. A minimum cost method and a maximum availability method are brought forward based on the weibull proportional hazard model; and with consideration of economic factors, a proper strategy of cable maintenance and replacement can be formulated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a power cable operation and maintenance method based on historical fault information and operating status, which belongs to the field of power equipment asset management, and is suitable for predicting the failure rate of power cables, and replacing some long-running years by formulating replacement strategies in advance Cables, slow down the growth trend of failure rate, improve the reliability of cable lines, thereby improving the stability of power grid operation. Background technique [0002] At home and abroad, mainly through the establishment of statistical models to analyze the failure mode of the cable, the overall failure probability density distribution of the cable is obtained, and the number of future cable failures is predicted; at the same time, the status of the cable and the status of the cable in the system are combined to formulate a maintenance and replacement plan for the cable. Usually, cable faults are div...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] 1) The Weibull distribution analyzes the running time before failure. The quality requirements for the failure data are relatively high. It is necessary to know the detailed commissioning date and failure date of the equipment. When the running time before the failure does not meet the Weibull distribution, the Weibull distribution cannot be used analyze;

[0004] 2) The Weibull distribution usually assumes that the cable is an irreparable component, which obviously does not match the actual operation of the power cable;

[0005] 3) The research work of Weibull distribution in foreign countries is usually based on a large amount of aging fault data, but domestic cable faults are mainly early faults. Since the characteristics of early fault data are different from aging fault data, the Weibull distribution model cannot be simply applied.

[0007] 1) The Crow-AMSAA model is suitable for analyzing the failure data of multiple mixed failure modes, but it is not suitable for analyzing the failure data of a single failure mode;

[0008] 2) When analyzing the characteristics of early cable fault data, due to the small number of fault data samples, the Crow-AMSAA model has poor anti-disturbance performance, and the reliability of the analysis results is poor;

[0009] In addition, the Weibull distribution and the Crow-AMSAA model are also obviously insufficient to predict the failure rate of power cables based on cable history failure information.

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