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Grey system theory-based method of predicting annual heat supply of urban heating system

A gray system theory and heating system technology, applied in the field of heating system load forecasting, can solve the problems that the forecasting method cannot be used in urban heating system planning, etc., to ensure real-time performance and reliability, ensure interpretability, and simplify the forecasting model Effect

Active Publication Date: 2015-06-10
哈尔滨天达控制股份有限公司
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of this invention is to propose a method for predicting the annual heat supply of urban heating systems based on gray system theory, so as to solve the problem that the prediction method for a single heating system cannot be used for urban heating system planning

Method used

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  • Grey system theory-based method of predicting annual heat supply of urban heating system
  • Grey system theory-based method of predicting annual heat supply of urban heating system
  • Grey system theory-based method of predicting annual heat supply of urban heating system

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0021] Specific implementation mode one: the following combination figure 1 To illustrate this embodiment, a method for predicting the annual heat supply of urban heating systems based on the gray system theory described in this embodiment is characterized in that the method includes the following steps:

[0022] Step 1. Select the initial variable and the historical value of the dependent variable: take the annual heat supply of the urban heating system as the forecast object, and count the annual heat supply of the town as the dependent variable. Since the heating system is a part of the urban infrastructure construction in the north, In addition to the development level of the heating project itself, it is also restricted by the development level of urban economy, population, industry and construction, so the relevant indicators of urban planning over the years are counted as initial variables;

[0023] The relevant indicators mentioned are: heating capacity, heating area, ...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0028] Specific embodiment two: the difference between this embodiment and specific embodiment one is: the calculation process of the gray correlation degree described in step two is as follows:

[0029] Step 21. Use the mean value method to dimensionless the dependent variable and each initial variable:

[0030] X i , 0 = x i , 0 x ‾ 0 , X i , j = x i , j x ‾ j , ( i = 1,2 ...

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0041] Specific embodiment three: the difference between this embodiment and specific embodiment one or two is:

[0042] The process of initial screening of initial variables described in step two is as follows:

[0043] When the gray correlation degree L j Greater than the judgment limit L of the gray relational degree * , it is judged that the correlation between the jth initial variable and the dependent variable is high, otherwise the initial variable is eliminated to complete the preliminary screening, where L * The value is from 0.6 to 0.8.

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method of predicting annual heat supply of an urban heating system, in particular to a grey system theory-based method of predicting annual heat supply of the urban heating system, belongs to the technical field of load prediction for heating systems and solves the problem that the existing prediction method of the single heating system is unable to be used in the planning of urban heating systems. The method is technically characterized by including: selecting a historic value of an initial variable and a historic value of a dependent variable; checking relational degree between the initial variable and the dependent variable; subjecting the initial variable to collinearity test, and performing screening to obtain an explanatory variable; building a GM (1, 1) and GM (1, N+1) model based on the grey system theory, and solving parameters of the model; building a grey system state equation to predict annual heat supply in a planned period. The method is applicable to the planning of urban energy systems or heating systems.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the annual heat supply of an urban heating system, in particular to a method for predicting the annual heat supply of an urban heating system based on gray system theory, and belongs to the technical field of heat supply system load prediction. Background technique [0002] With the process of urbanization in my country and the improvement of people's living standards, higher requirements are put forward for the comfort and controllability of the indoor environment of buildings. The heating area and heat supply of heating systems in my country's cities and towns continue to increase. In 2018, the area of ​​central heating in my country increased from 213 million square meters to 5.184 billion square meters, and the total annual heat supply increased from 287 million gigajoules to 2.95 billion gigajoules. The energy consumption of the heating system has become an important part of the total energy consumpti...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 王芃段雅洁
Owner 哈尔滨天达控制股份有限公司
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