Method for using oil reservoir structure descending method to forecast crude output

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for using an oil reservoir structure descending method to forecast crude output and relates to the crude output forecasting field. According to the method for using the oil reservoir structure descending method to forecast the crude output, when forecasting the crude output of the coming year, in order to successfully finish the production plan of the whole year, combining with the arrangement and plan situations of the actual production of an oil field, the monthly crude output of each of an old well, a new well and a service well is calculated through using the monthly natural descending rate of each of the old well, new well and / or service well. Because the method for using the oil reservoir structure descending method to forecast the crude output combines the actual production situation, the matching relationship between the forecast value and the actual production process is good, the forecast value can well guide the actual production process, the monthly forecast output can be finished and implemented better according to the actual production arrangement and production plan, and the production plan of the whole year can be finished smoothly.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of prediction of crude oil production, in particular to a method for predicting crude oil production by using the oil reservoir structure decline method. Background technique [0002] In the process of oil field development, it is necessary to predict the crude oil production in the next year and arrange and plan the crude oil production work in the next year. Among them, crude oil production forecast includes natural production forecast of old wells, production forecast of measure wells and production forecast of new wells. [0003] At present, when people predict the output of the next year, they usually only consider the annual natural decline rate, use the annual output of the previous year and the annual natural decline rate to predict the annual output of the next year, and then use the annual output to calculate the monthly output of the next year. average yield. [0004] This method of predicting the annual ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] This method of predicting the annual output and monthly output of the next year, since the predicted output value of each month is the same, in practice, the same production tasks can be arranged every month, but the situation in actual production is more complicated and may A failure or special situation occurred in a certain month, which made the oil field or oil area unable to complete the production plan, which led to the failure of the annual production to be completed smoothly; in order to ensure the smooth completion of the annual production, the production increase strategy is generally adopted, and the proactive However, since the monthly forecast value is not calculated according to the production increase strategy, if the actual production tasks and production plans are arranged according to the production increase strategy, the monthly predicted crude oil production will be different from the actual output. The production arrangement and the planned output are out of touch, so that the actual production arrangement and production plan of each month lack the guidance of the forecast value, and it is difficult to complete and implement smoothly, so as to ensure the smooth completion of the annual output

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