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Electric quantity prediction method with three-level industry division considered

A forecasting method and industry technology, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as large data demand, reduced operability, and reduced generalization of forecasting methods. The method is simple and accurate, easy to promote, Good electricity growth trend and the effect of economic growth trend

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-01-07
SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] At present, the power and load forecasting methods mainly present the following two problems. One is to pursue the fitting accuracy of the original data of the total power of the power grid, and the other is to pursue complex algorithms based on the premise of large-capacity samples, while ignoring the characteristics of power grid users and industries
In electricity forecasting work, due to the large number of industries, there are large differences in the electricity consumption trends of different industries. If you blindly pursue the fitting accuracy of data, the generalization of the prediction method will be reduced; if you pursue too complex algorithms, it will be due to Data requirements are too large to reduce operability

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  • Electric quantity prediction method with three-level industry division considered
  • Electric quantity prediction method with three-level industry division considered
  • Electric quantity prediction method with three-level industry division considered

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Embodiment Construction

[0049] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the embodiments and the accompanying drawings, but the embodiments of the present invention are not limited thereto.

[0050] Such as figure 1 , 2 , 3, taking a certain district of a certain city as an example, this embodiment is based on a three-level industry division grid electricity forecasting method, including the following steps:

[0051] (1) Carry out the three-level industry division of the electricity industry;

[0052] (1-1) Level 1 industry is the whole area to be predicted, and its power is the total power of the area to be predicted;

[0053] (1-2) Level 2 industries are the subdivisions of Level 1 industries: large industries, non-industrial and general industries, residential buildings, and commerce;

[0054] (1-3) The third-level industry is the subdivision of individual industries in the second-level industry: considering the simplicity, operability and accuracy of the...

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Abstract

An electric quantity prediction method with three-level industry division considered sequentially comprises the following steps that (1) three-level industry division is conducted on electricity consumption industries; (2) electric quantity historical data are input; (3) the electric quantity of the third-level industry is predicted; (4) the electric quantity of the second-level industry is predicted; (5) the electric quantity of the first-level industry is predicted; (6) prediction values of future quarterly electric quantities of all the levels of industries are obtained. According to the method, the electricity consumption characteristics of users in all the levels of industries of power grids can be effectively combined, reverse prediction from bottom to top can be conducted on the electric quantities of all the levels of industries, and prediction results are good in precision.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power grid data processing, in particular to a power forecasting method considering three-level industry division. Background technique [0002] Affected by factors such as economic transformation and industrial structure adjustment, the total power consumption of the grid has also changed accordingly. Power forecasting is a basic task in the electricity market, in which industry power can retain the most original characteristics of the total power. Therefore, when predicting the total electricity consumption, it is necessary to combine the characteristics of electricity consumption in the industry to provide marketing decision support for power supply companies, which is of great significance to the safe and economic operation of the power grid and the construction and development of the power market. [0003] Industrial electricity consumption is the basis of grid electricity consumption, which retains the most ...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 欧阳森冯天瑞
Owner SOUTH CHINA UNIV OF TECH
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