Short-time passenger flow forecasting method suitable for urban rail transit system

Abstract

The invention relates to a short-time passenger flow forecasting method suitable for an urban rail transit system. The short-time passenger flow forecasting method suitable for the urban rail transit system comprises the following steps that a, swiping card ticket data of passengers riding trail transit are obtained from an AFC; b, classification is conducted according to the types of tickets; c, analysis is conducted on different types of passenger flow data; d, according to unique identification numbers, statistics of the daily travelling rule of each one-card is carried out; e, the daily travelling rule of the single one-card in a next forecasting time period on a single day is forecasted; f, a one-card forecasting result is formed; g, for the data of disposable tickets, passenger flow distribution is conducted with a K short path method, K paths are obtained, and the passenger flow distribution probability of each path is obtained; h, the disposable ticket data of the forecasted day are distributed to the different paths according to the probabilities of the K short paths, and the passenger flow data of different paths are forecasted. Compared with the prior art, the short-time passenger flow forecasting method has the advantages of being efficient, accurate, high in real-time performance and the like.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a passenger flow prediction method, in particular to a short-term passenger flow prediction method suitable for urban rail transit systems. Background technique [0002] In the current urban rail transit system, due to the continuous improvement of the network and complexity of the system, emergency rescue command has become one of the important support systems for maintaining the normal operation of urban rail transit management. In the face of emergencies, the emergency rescue management system and decision-making are particularly important. Under the current background, it is necessary to establish an efficient and reliable operation dispatching command system to realize the prevention and response of rail transit to emergencies. [0003] At present, the main research on the theory and system construction of the rail transit emergency system focuses on the management system and optimization measures, which involves a wide ra...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, the main research on the theory and system construction of the rail transit emergency system focuses on the management system and optimization measures, which involves a wide range of issues and involves many posts. However, the construction of an emergency system for a certain key post, such as only for traffic dispatch There is relatively little research and development on emergency response assistance systems in emergencies, but the development of this system platform is urgently needed

Due to the complexity and repeatability of the decision-making process of urban rail transit emergency dispatch, as well as the diversification of accident types, differentiated decision-making information requirements, and complicated emergency plans, etc. Vulnerable to the influence of psychology and external environment, communication congestion, excessive information volume and other reasons, it has been difficult to meet the demand for high operational safety and emergency response efficiency of rail transit under emergencies

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