Reservoir dispatching risk evaluation method by considering runoff forecast uncertainty

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a reservoir dispatching risk evaluation method by considering runoff forecast uncertainty. The reservoir dispatching risk evaluation method comprises a data processing module, a runoff prediction module, a runoff probability distribution module, a runoff random sampling module and a risk evaluation calculation module, wherein the data processing module standardizes data required by the runoff prediction module and inputs the data into the runoff prediction module to carry out runoff forecast; the forecasted runoff data is input the runoff probability distribution module by the runoff prediction module to obtain a corresponding probability distribution matrix; the probability distribution matrix is input into the runoff random sampling module by the runoff probability distribution module to carry out random sampling to obtain a storage runoff set; and the storage runoff set is input the risk evaluation calculation module by the random sampling module to calculate module calculation risks. The invention fully considers runoff forecast uncertainty and randomness, establishes a reservoir dispatching risk evaluation model by considering the runoff forecast uncertainty, carries out comprehensive safety assessment on the dispatching operation of a reservoir under runoff forecast information and exhibits wide application prospect and social value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of reservoir dispatching risk assessment in water conservancy systems, and in particular relates to a reservoir dispatching risk assessment method considering runoff forecast uncertainty. technical background [0002] Reservoir dispatching operation is to optimize the time and space distribution of water resources according to the comprehensive utilization requirements of the reservoir, effectively improve the utilization rate of water resources, and achieve the purpose of promoting benefits and eliminating harm. Economic benefits, ecological benefits and social benefits are huge, and they are important aspects of water resource management. [0003] As one of the most important input information for reservoir scheduling, runoff is easily affected by various factors such as weather, rainfall, and forecast models. Unavoidable uncertainties exist in runoff forecasting, which leads to uncertainty in scheduling decisions a...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] As one of the most important input information for reservoir scheduling, runoff is easily affected by various factors such as weather, rainfall, and forecast models. Unavoidable uncertainties exist in runoff forecasting, which leads to uncertainty in scheduling decisions and makes the daily scheduling of reservoirs difficult. facing certain risks

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