Fuzzy mathematics based operational risk assessment method and fuzzy mathematics based operational risk assessment system

Abstract

The invention provides a fuzzy mathematics based operational risk assessment method. The method includes: determining a fault state set in a power distribution network; computing occurrence probability of each fault in the fault state set according to a preset fault probability assignment rule; according to a preset computing rule based on the fuzzy mathematics subordinating degree function, computing a corresponding assessment index value when each fault in the fault state set occurs, and obtaining a risk assessment index value of each fault according to the corresponding assessment index value of each fault and the occurrence probability of each fault; determining the operational risk assessment value of the power distribution network according to the risk assessment index value of each fault. Correspondingly, the invention further provides a fuzzy mathematics based operational risk assessment system. According to the technical scheme, the method and the system can meet different practical needs, so that a great quantity of operation information in the power distribution network can be integrated, extracted and analyzed, and risk level mastery is enhanced.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of electric power systems, in particular to a fuzzy mathematics-based operation risk assessment method and a fuzzy mathematics-based operation risk assessment system. Background technique [0002] Power system risk assessment can be divided into power system planning risk assessment and power system operation risk assessment according to its assessment characteristics. Power system planning risk assessment is mostly used to analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different planning schemes, and provide guidance for power system planning and long-term stable operation; The system operation risk assessment and early warning in a short period of time in the future are given, and the operation risk assessment has been applied to the transmission network, and good practical results have been achieved. [0003] However, compared with the transmission network, the distribution network is different in n...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, compared with the transmission network, the distribution network is different in terms of network topology, operation mode, number of equipment, and the focus of operation scheduling, which leads to different methods for the operation risk assessment of the distribution network and the transmission network.

In recent years, the scale of my country's distribution network has become larger and larger, and the network topology has become more and more complex. People have higher and higher requirements for the power supply reliability, power quality and service quality of the distribution network; The network includes distributed power sources, micro-grids and energy storage devices, etc., which makes the power distribution of the distribution network easy to change, and it is difficult for dispatchers to grasp the changes in input, active and reactive power, which makes it very difficult to adjust and control the distribution line voltage. Difficult, the occurrence of a fault may change the estimated fault short-circuit current level and affect the distribution of voltage and short-circuit current, which greatly increases the potential operation risk of the distribution network

Images