A Classified Forecasting Method of Annual Maximum Load Based on Economic and Meteorological Factors

Abstract

The invention provides a method for performing classification prediction on annual maximum load based on economical and meteorological factors. The method comprises the following steps: (1) reading the influence factor of each type of load, reading historical data and constructing a classification prediction model; (2) acquiring each explanatory variable value of a target year; (3) performing classification prediction on each type of load of the target year; (4) calculating the annual maximum load of the target year. According to the method, the annual maximum load is decomposed into annual basic load, annual residential air conditioner load and annual non-residential air conditioner load, so that the influence factors can be considered more deeply; and a classification prediction model is established, the economical and meteorological factors are considered in the prediction model at the same time, the influence of specific temperature is not considered in the meteorological factor, but a climate condition index and high temperature lasting days are introduced into the prediction model, so that the problem that the advancement and accuracy of meteorological prediction do not meet the load prediction requirement is solved, and the prediction accuracy is increased.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grid load forecasting, in particular to a method for classifying and forecasting the annual maximum load based on economic and meteorological factors. Background technique [0002] The annual maximum load forecast is the basis for formulating the power system development plan and the basis for rationally arranging the power supply and power grid construction progress. Accurately predicting the annual maximum load can improve the utilization rate of equipment and avoid waste of resources. [0003] At present, there are two main problems in the research on the annual maximum load. One is that the impact of economic and meteorological factors on the annual maximum load is not considered at the same time; the other is that the annual maximum load generally occurs in July and August each year. With the continuous improvement of air-conditioning level, the air-conditioning load accounts for about 30% of t...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] At present, there are two main problems in the research on the annual maximum load. One is that the impact of economic and meteorological factors on the annual maximum load is not considered at the same time; the other is that the annual maximum load generally occurs in July and August each year. With the continuous improvement of air-conditioning level, the air-conditioning load accounts for about 30% of the annual maximum load, and it fluctuates greatly with different weather conditions. However, the current research method mainly focuses on the relationship between air-conditioning load and temperature, and does not target different objects of electricity consumption. Classification research on air conditioning load

In view of the above two points, the current research method has low prediction accuracy for the annual maximum load

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