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Method for predicting annual power consumption based on elastic coefficient

A technology of elastic coefficient and prediction method, applied in prediction, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of large fluctuation of electric elastic coefficient, difficult to predict accurately, and large fluctuation of elastic coefficient, so as to achieve reliable prediction results and improve accuracy. , the effect of high accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-11-27
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In the calculation formula of the electric power elasticity coefficient in the prior art, the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption and the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the whole society are compared with the current value and the previous value. The power elasticity coefficient obtained in this way fluctuates greatly, and it is not easy to find out which Therefore, it cannot be used to predict the annual electricity consumption of the whole society
[0005] At present, scholars at home and abroad focus on its application in single-sequence power consumption forecasting, and compare the prediction method based on the power elasticity coefficient with other power forecasting methods, generally through theoretical experience and qualitative analysis. Analyzing and judging the influencing factors of the power elasticity coefficient, there is no demonstration of the specific influencing mechanism of these factors through empirical evidence, the elasticity coefficient itself fluctuates greatly, and it is difficult to predict accurately, so it is also difficult to apply it to power forecasting

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  • Method for predicting annual power consumption based on elastic coefficient
  • Method for predicting annual power consumption based on elastic coefficient
  • Method for predicting annual power consumption based on elastic coefficient

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Embodiment Construction

[0033] In the following, the specific implementation of an annual electricity forecasting method based on the elastic coefficient of the present invention will be described by taking the forecasting process of the electricity consumption of the whole society in the target year of Anhui Province as an example.

[0034] Such as figure 2 Shown is the trend chart of power elasticity coefficient calculated based on current prices in Anhui Province from 1992 to 2012. It can be seen that the power elasticity coefficient of Anhui Province has fluctuated greatly since 1992. The highest was 1.52 in 2003, and the lowest In 1998, it was -0.17. This is because the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society in 1998 was negative. After 1998, the power elasticity coefficient maintained an upward trend, and began to decline slowly after 2003, showing an overall upward trend.

[0035] From 1995 to 1998, Anhui Province responded to the "Ninth Five-Year Plan" and focused on adj...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting annual power consumption based on an elastic coefficient. The method comprises the following steps: (1) selecting a base year and reading historical data; (2) calculating the electric elastic coefficient of each year in a historical sample interval based on the base year comparable price; (3) calculating the added value ratios of two of three main industries of each year in the historical sample interval; (4) establishing a regression model of the electric elastic coefficient of the added value ratios of the two main industries; (5) predicting the electric elastic coefficient of a target year via the regression model; (6) calculating the social power consumption of the target year via the predicted electric elastic coefficient and the GDP (Gross Domestic Product). According to the method, a new electric elastic coefficient is calculated based on the base year comparable price, the regression model is established by using the electric elastic coefficient and the added value ratios of two of three main industries, and the prediction of the social power consumption of the target year is based on a theoretical model, so that the prediction accuracy is increased.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grid electricity forecasting, in particular to an annual electricity forecasting method based on an elastic coefficient. [0002] Background technique [0003] The power elasticity coefficient is the ratio of the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society to the year-on-year growth rate of GDP, which can reflect the relationship between power consumption and economic growth. Changes in factors such as energy consumption structure, industrial structure, technology, and living standards will lead to changes in the power elasticity coefficient. [0004] In the calculation formula of the electric power elasticity coefficient in the prior art, the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption and the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the whole society are compared with the current value and the previous value. The power elasticity coefficient obtained in this way flu...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 卢金滇王海超葛斐李周石雪梅杨欣荣秀婷
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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