Medium-term load forecasting system for regional power grid master devices

Abstract

The invention discloses a medium-term load forecasting system for regional power grid master devices. The medium-term load forecasting system comprises a data sheet maintenance module, a trend analysis module, a load forecasting module, an error analysis module and a temperature influence module. The data sheet maintenance module is used for managing a data sheet and processing data at an earlier stage. A user can visually know load development trends of the master devices by the aid of the trend analysis module. The load forecasting module builds a forecasting model base including five forecasting methods which are a month coefficient method, a trend ratio method, a link relative ratio method, a multiple proportion method and an increase rate method, and the user can voluntarily select the forecasting methods. The error analysis module is used for computing absolute percentage errors of forecasting results of the master devices and analyzing the optimal forecasting method suitable for the master devices according to error results. The temperature influence module is used for adding temperature influence factors based on load forecasting to obtain load forecasting results at different temperatures ranging from 35 DEG C to 40 DEG C in summer.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a medium-term load forecasting system for main equipment of a regional power grid, which belongs to the field of electric load forecasting. Background technique [0002] Power load forecasting is the basis of the economic operation of the power system and an important part of power system planning. The power system adjusts and manages the load on the basis of load forecasting to ensure the balance of power supply and demand. Therefore, load forecasting has become one of the important tasks of power system dispatching, power consumption management, planning and other departments. [0003] Electric medium-term load forecasting is an important content of load forecasting. In this field, there have been relatively systematic researches at home and abroad, and the researches on various forecasting methods have been relatively mature and in-depth. However, the current power system is basically load forecasting for the total demand o...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the current power system is basically load forecasting for the total demand of the system or for the region, and lacks load forecasting for the main equipment (the main equipment in the power distribution system includes 220kV main transformer, 110kV main transformer, 35kV main transformer and 10kV feeder), and there is no load forecasting software specifically for the main equipment

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