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Early dynamic prediction method of disaster in debris flow development area based on earthquake and drought monitoring

A technology of dynamic prediction and debris flow, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve the problems of lack of early warning technology for debris flow disasters, immaturity, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2015-12-02
INST OF MOUNTAIN HAZARDS & ENVIRONMENT CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCI
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide an early warning method for debris flow disasters based on earthquake and drought monitoring, which mainly solves the lack of early warning technology for debris flow disasters in the prior art, which is not mature enough, which is not conducive to people's prevention and control of debris flow The problem

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  • Early dynamic prediction method of disaster in debris flow development area based on earthquake and drought monitoring
  • Early dynamic prediction method of disaster in debris flow development area based on earthquake and drought monitoring
  • Early dynamic prediction method of disaster in debris flow development area based on earthquake and drought monitoring

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Embodiment

[0039] The factors that usually affect the formation of debris flow are soil source, water source and topography. Studies have shown that when the 1-hour rainfall is greater than 9mm and the 24-hour rainfall is greater than 20mm, there is a possibility of a debris flow, and such rainfall is common in mountainous areas of our country (except arid mountainous areas). The main controlling factor for the formation of debris in mountainous areas is the loose soil source, while the main factors affecting the soil source are earthquakes and droughts. For example, the Wenchuan earthquake produced about 5 billion m 3 However, extensive drought and physical weathering formed a large amount of loose matter and became the root cause of debris flow development. Therefore, starting from earthquakes and droughts, creating an early prediction method for debris flow disasters based on earthquakes and droughts has a theoretical basis and can fill the gap. Domestically, based on the blank of ear...

Embodiment example 1

[0065] Taking Ningnan County, Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture, Sichuan Province as the debris flow prediction area, using the early warning method for debris flow of the present invention, and using deterministic methods to analyze and predict the historical seismic activity in the region and the impact of the drought in the spring of that year on the development of debris flow, the 2012 rainy season debris flow was carried out. Susceptibility assessment provides technical support for early warning of regional debris flow, the steps are as follows:

[0066] A. The history of earthquakes in Ningnan County and its vicinity in recent years is as follows: On May 12, 2008, the Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan; the long-sequence rainfall data of Ningnan County were downloaded from the Data Sharing Center of the China Meteorological Administration;

[0067] B. It can be seen from Table 1 that the development of debris flow in Ningnan County is closely related (or relatively close) ...

Embodiment example 2

[0074] Taking Linxiang County, Hunan Province as the prediction area, using the early warning method of debris flow of the present invention, using deterministic methods to analyze and predict the historical seismic activity of the region and the impact of the drought in the spring of that year on the development of debris flow, and evaluate the susceptibility of debris flow in the rainy season of 2011 , to provide technical support for early warning of regional debris flow, the steps are as follows:

[0075] A. The history of earthquakes in Linxiang County and its vicinity in recent years is as follows: In the past 50 years, no recorded earthquakes have occurred in Linxiang County and its surrounding areas; the long-sequence rainfall data in Linxiang County are downloaded from the Data Sharing Center of the China Meteorological Administration;

[0076] B. It can be seen from Table 1 that the development of debris flow in Linxiang County is only closely related to drought, so...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a debris flow development-area disaster early-stage dynamic prediction method based on seism and drought monitoring. The debris flow development-area disaster early-stage dynamic prediction method based on the seism and drought monitoring resolves the problems that in the prior art a debris flow disaster early-stage alarm technology is not mature enough and thus preventive treatment to the debris flow disaster by people is not beneficial. The debris flow development-area disaster early-stage dynamic prediction method based on the seism and drought monitoring comprises the following steps: searching and collecting historical seismic activity status, long sequence rainfall data and terrain data of an debris flow prediction area and adjacent areas; determining a typical debris flow development-area to which the debris flow prediction area belongs, combining a coupling relationship of debris flow development with seismic activities and drought in the typical debris flow development-area, and analyzing and obtaining correlation of the debris flow development with the seismic activities and drought; and judging susceptible occurrence degree of debris flow according to the calculated and obtained effect of the seismic activities and drought to the debris flow development. The debris flow development-area disaster early-stage dynamic prediction method based on the seism and drought monitoring achieves the purpose of precision prediction of the debris flow through the scheme, and has high practical value and promotional value.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a disaster prediction method, in particular to an early dynamic prediction method for disasters in debris flow development areas based on earthquake and drought monitoring. Background technique [0002] As we all know, mudslides refer to special torrents in mountainous areas or other areas with deep valleys and steep terrain that cause landslides caused by heavy rain, snowstorm or other natural disasters and carry a large amount of sediment and stones. Due to the characteristics of suddenness, fast flow, large flow and large material capacity, the debris flow has strong destructive power. Once it occurs, it will cause irreparable losses to people's lives and properties. Therefore, people are in urgent need of a method that can effectively predict debris flow, so as to realize the timely prevention and control of debris flow. At present, the prevention and control measures of debris flow include the following two types: [0003...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 陈宁生王涛卢阳邓明枫杨成林丁海涛
Owner INST OF MOUNTAIN HAZARDS & ENVIRONMENT CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCI
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