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Method for estimating disease incidence of communicable disease dynamic model based on non-linear observers

A dynamic model and disease incidence technology, applied in the application field of infectious disease dynamic model, can solve the problems of poor immediacy and high complexity of theoretical analysis

Inactive Publication Date: 2011-11-16
LUOYANG INST OF SCI & TECH
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Problems solved by technology

In the dynamics model of infectious diseases, the use of traditional methods to estimate the incidence of diseases often has problems such as high theoretical analysis complexity and poor immediacy

Method used

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  • Method for estimating disease incidence of communicable disease dynamic model based on non-linear observers
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  • Method for estimating disease incidence of communicable disease dynamic model based on non-linear observers

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Embodiment Construction

[0032] The invention adopts a parameter estimation method based on a nonlinear observer. The nonlinear observer can not only estimate multiple parameters of the system, but also simultaneously estimate state output and parameter quantities. The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. However, the present invention is not limited to the following examples.

[0033] The establishment process of nonlinear observation is as follows:

[0034] Consider first the following system: where x is the system state output, u is the control input, and θ is a parameter vector to be estimated. It is assumed here that the state and control vectors are estimates of variable parameter vectors.

[0035] The following nonlinear observers can be constructed:

[0036] θ ^ = - φ ( x ) + z ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for estimating disease incidence of a communicable disease dynamic model based on non-linear observers. The method comprises the following steps: for a dynamic system, constructing non-linear observers (1) and (2); constructing a non-linear system observer (4) corresponding to a communicable disease dynamic model system (3) of which the form is described in the specification of the invention according to the construction method of the non-linear system observers (1) and (2); and estimating the incidence of diseases in the model (3) by utilizing the non-linear system observer (4). The estimation method disclosed by the invention is simple and easy to operate, can be used for estimating the estimation value of the disease incidence, as well as other parameters such as infection rate coefficients, the death rate because of diseases and the like, has the certain advantages in the aspects of self-adaptation and accuracy and has a certain reference value in the actual prevention and control of communicable diseases.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of application of infectious disease dynamics models, and mainly relates to a method for estimating the incidence rate of infectious disease dynamics models based on nonlinear observers. Background technique [0002] Infectious diseases are contagious diseases produced by pathogenic microorganisms (viruses, rickettsias, bacteria, spirochetes, etc.) and parasites (protozoa or worms) after infecting the human body. In recent years, with the emergence and spread of new infectious diseases such as AIDS, SARS and H1N1 influenza, they have brought serious threats to human life. Therefore, the prevention, treatment and control of infectious diseases and the research on their transmission mechanism are becoming more and more important. At present, there are mainly four research methods on infectious diseases: descriptive research, analytical research, experimental research and theoretical research. In theoretical r...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 魏巍李蒙张永胜李晓花黄阳刘庆伟
Owner LUOYANG INST OF SCI & TECH
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