Method for safety precaution of producing area of farm product in long term

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for safety precaution of a producing area of a farm product for a long term, which comprises the following steps: taking a standard data of producing area environment of a non-polluted farm product, a product standard data and a background data of actual environment of the producing area as basis to construct a weight matrix of indexes influencing composite index of the producing area environment; calculating composite index of respective year of the producing area through historical actual measurement data of the producing area environment; and finally outputting a line graph of the composite index and a predictor formula of the producing area by using a double exponential smoothing method of a time sequence so as to carry out prediction and warning of composite index and the deterioration speed of a producing area of a future farm product. The method discloses a law that the producing area safe condition changes along with the time through the historical data of the time sequence and predicts the future, has high reliability and accuracy, can carry out prediction and prewarning of an evolution trend, the direction and the speed of the producing area safety of different areas, and can make foreseeable judgment on a system and the like so that pertinence measures are taken, alarming source is eliminated, and agroecosystem safety can be ensured; and the method has wide applicability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an early warning method, and more specifically, to a safety early warning method for agricultural product origin. Background technique [0002] The early warning of the quality of the origin of agricultural products refers to the timely alarm of the degradation and deterioration of the quality of the origin of agricultural products. If the origin of agricultural products is improperly used, the quality will degrade or even deteriorate. Once a qualitative change occurs in the degradation of the quality of agricultural product origin, it will be difficult to reverse. An effective way to control the deterioration of the quality of agricultural product origin is to prevent it from happening. Before it degenerates and deteriorates, early warnings and alarms can be issued, and timely measures can be taken to effectively restrain and rectify it. It is possible to change the evolution direction of the quality of agricultural product o...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, professional forecasting models are mostly empirical models, and a few experimental models are only applicable to small areas, resulting in poor applicability and difficulty in widespread promotion. Expert analysis methods are more inclined to qualitative forecasting analysis methods, and most of them are not suitable for quantitative forecasting. It serves as a means of adjusting the deviation of the quantitative analysis model; while the fuzzy cluster analysis and artificial neural network methods in the mathematical statistics model are mostly used to predict the development of agricultural economy

[0005] At present, there are many professional forecasts and early warnings on the output of agricultural products at home and abroad. For example, the patent CN101052147 "Intelligent Early Warning System for Field Crop Diseases and Pests" applied by the Hefei Institute of Material Science of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the patent CN101059493 "a kind of Water Quality Online Biosafety Early Warning Method” and so on, there is no relevant research report on the long-term prediction and early warning model for the safety of agricultural product origin by using time series analysis method

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