Permafrost active layer thickness calculation method based on system dynamics

Abstract

The invention discloses a permafrost active layer thickness calculation method based on system dynamics, which belongs to the field of geology and comprises five steps of influence factor identification, inter-factor correlation establishment, system dynamics model construction, dynamic data exchange and ALT spatial and temporal distribution analysis. The influence factor identification is to identify and screen out ALT main influence factors by using a big data mining technology; the establishment of the correlation between the factors is to determine the correlation between the influence factors; the construction of the system dynamics model is to construct an ALT prediction model based on a causal feedback relationship by using a system dynamics method; the dynamic data exchange is to match an SD simulation result with spatial information in the ArcGIS by using a dynamic data exchange technology; according to the ALT spatial and temporal distribution analysis, a result obtained after dynamic data exchange is displayed in space, and engineering application in the future is facilitated.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of geology, in particular to a method for calculating the thickness of a permafrost active layer based on system dynamics. Background technique [0002] Climate change has greatly disturbed the global cryosphere ecological balance, hydrological processes, energy exchange and carbon cycle. As the most active area of ​​water and heat exchange in the cryosphere, the permafrost active layer is extremely sensitive to environmental changes. Climate change may affect the original freeze-thaw balance of permafrost active layer thickness (ALT), and then induce secondary disasters such as thawed mudflows and thermally thawed lakes and ponds, threatening the ecological environment of the cryosphere. At the same time, the permafrost layer of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau contains a large amount of greenhouse gases. Climate warming leads to an increase in the frequency of ALT freezing and thawing, which will change the decomposition...

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Problems solved by technology

Once these greenhouse gases are discharged into the atmosphere, it will bring a series of climate problems, which will greatly affect the realization of my country's "double carbon" strategic goal.

ALT is affected by many factors. Due to the lack of a large amount of basic data, coupled with the vast area of ​​the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, there is significant spatial heterogeneity among many factors, making it difficult for existing forecasting simulations to accurately predict ALT.

On the other hand, the parameter settings of many current forecasting models are complex, the data demand is large, and the model calculation complexity is high, which is difficult to apply to engineering practice

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