Artificial neural network-based slope earthquake slip prediction method and system

Abstract

The invention discloses a slope earthquake slip prediction method and system based on an artificial neural network, and aims to construct an explicit expression for predicting the permanent displacement of a slope through an earthquake oscillation spectrum acceleration and a slope yield acceleration by using a large number of earthquake waves and Newmark slide block analysis. The method comprises the steps of firstly constructing a displacement prediction network model; then selecting seismic waves from a seismic oscillation database NGA-West2 and calculating permanent displacement of the side slope under different conditions; coupling an early stop technology and a 5-fold cross validation technology to select an optimal model hyper-parameter; then, optimal hyper-parameters are configured for the displacement prediction network model, final training is carried out, and the performance of the displacement prediction network model is evaluated; and finally, predicting the permanent displacement under a given earthquake working condition and a slope condition. Based on the method, the invention develops and discloses three slope earthquake slip prediction models with good accuracy, universality and practicability, and has significant guiding significance for slope stability evaluation and aseismic design under the action of an earthquake.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of disaster prediction, and relates to a method and system for predicting permanent displacement of a slope under earthquake action, in particular to a method and system for predicting earthquake slip of a slope based on an artificial neural network. Background technique [0002] Earthquake-induced landslides are a very common geological disaster, which may cause serious harm to personal safety and infrastructure construction. The permanent displacement of the slope is often used to evaluate the stability of the slope under the earthquake, so the prediction of the seismic slip of the slope is of great engineering significance. As a compromise between complex finite element analysis and simple quasi-static slope stability analysis, the mechanical mechanism-based Newmark slider method ([Reference 1]) provides an effective tool for estimating slope displacements. However, this method needs to specify the speci...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the polynomial form adopted by existing displacement prediction models may not accurately capture the nonlinear behavior of Newmark analysis, resulting in large model standard deviations (uncertainties) ([Reference 3])

In addition, existing models generally use difficult-to-obtain ground motion parameters such as the Arias intensity (Ia) ([Document 4]), which limits the engineering applicability of the model to a certain extent

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